Movies · resolved market
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f785949c1827056aadb46b3f8c2c2193e1c472a7bab2bcbd0b0965e6a2f342c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f68…91edbacked No | 0c | 3,626$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 52c | 3,085$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.49 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 4c | 1,325$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…a727backed No | 8c | 1,270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 8c | 1,163$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f2…2707backed No | 9c | 1,131$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…548dbacked No | 1c | 915.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 9c | 762.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 739.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 720$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b0…4ad7backed No | 10c | 670$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 5c | 639.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 636.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 42c | 614.4$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.53 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 16c | 614.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 570$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 19c | 531.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.72 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 19c | 400.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.66 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 325.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 29c | 308.18$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.59 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 74c | 283.89$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…9d16backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…9b3dbacked No | 11c | 184.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…1936backed No | 9c | 142.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 8c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 78c | 137.48$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…55f8backed No | 15c | 136.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 115.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked No | 73c | 111.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 55c | 89.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 25c | 89.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 84.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 84.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 20c | 78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…5792backed Yes | 21c | 51.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 79c | 47.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd981…2da8backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3m?this page
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 1.5m and 2m?No won
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?No won
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 2.5m?No won
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 1.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.