TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,361 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x652d…46b3backed No5c649.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8661820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No44c582.37$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.282,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c570.9$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.812,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No27c510.9$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.253951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No27c508$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.564,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x380b…1fbfbacked No24c478.65$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked No4c459.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.25834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No29c435.24$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.633,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No32c430.64$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.126,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c377$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.215,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcff…8528backed Yes37c342.47$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.716159%36 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes42c319.89$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.95158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes80c300$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.429953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes39c297.93$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0115334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c297$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.463,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c296.34$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.134,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c295$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.765,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x363b…6ff7backed Yes41c294.83$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.832060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes37c285.48$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4815027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No47c282$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.233,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed01…89b7backed Yes43c258.57$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.577552%39 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No64c251.22$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.711,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes71c230.41$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.716,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1104…1f70backed Yes58c208.42$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3314151.8%73 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27b6…798dbacked Yes38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1242035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7461…3515backed Yes39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1222532%8 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No28c198.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.724,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c188.64$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No8c186.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7651631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed No62c177.42$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11016641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes43c165.49$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.332334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6ec…fd3fbacked Yes41c157.1$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.691233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes35c155.65$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0324542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed No64c155$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.211947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes40c155$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9336930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No26c152.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3622550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No57c146.8$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.977,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes73c145.73$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.852,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes36c138.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5314646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes77c137.35$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.252,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes34c136.95$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0110434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes39c136.33$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1628441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes42c128$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4636648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No45c127.79$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9448919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa19a…30b0backed No67c126.4$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.82742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes46c125.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.872,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No49c124.8$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4931219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes42c121$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1856543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c114.59$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.965,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf0…6444backed No9c110.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3760%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No34c109.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7916550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No38c108.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3441760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes57c104.37$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.371,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c103.21$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.98,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes73c103.01$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.522,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea0a…34e1backed Yes43c102.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.661040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes34c101$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6418837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6112934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No55c99.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes34c99.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9941845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes29c99.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.961650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c41…500dbacked Yes30c95.39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.987627.6%21 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No65c89.56$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.283,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9008…09f0backed Yes58c88.9$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3711939.5%47 W · 72 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes36c83.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3833351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No16c81.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.482,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…0500backed Yes33c80$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.958538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked No63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes75c74.17$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8814060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…c548backed Yes36c70.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.481070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+46.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes33c69.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1917831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c69.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes74c69.18$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.993956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes29c68.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.539548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No59c68.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed No36c66.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9613051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes33c65.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1921236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed Yes43c64.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.652934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes43c61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9316543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed Yes40c60.74$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.295841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes77c60.51$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No57c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.24,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No60c60$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c59.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.892,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes35c58.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.11,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes34c56.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1413035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes37c55.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.62,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No67c54.18$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.291,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes44c52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1249854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No61c51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.111,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3037942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.514833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3144646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.523668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2817926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.619662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.