TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Magic: 1H O/U 108.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,324

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,249 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0eba…8dbebacked Over52c718.78$372 inLost-$372.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under48c535.11$257 inWon+$278.2669848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under50c400$200 inWon+$20050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…3e5cbacked Over51c340.31$172 inLost-$172450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under48c246.26$119 inWon+$126.952,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Under51c176.55$91 inWon+$85.6921848.2%105 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7250…5880backed Over50c156$78 inLost-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under49c120$59 inWon+$61.236749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under50c110.2$55 inWon+$55.137665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed Over50c100$50 inLost-$507936.7%29 W · 50 L-9.5wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0514…def7backed Over51c98.04$50 inLost-$503855.3%21 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over47c83.13$39 inLost-$3921642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4b6…670fbacked Over48c81.46$39 inLost-$3920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x499c…2f8ebacked Over58c50$29 inLost-$295251.9%27 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under50c40$20 inWon+$2062049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under49c37.63$18 inWon+$19.191,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f9…2b7bbacked Under72c27.74$20 inWon+$7.742347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb028…5652backed Under51c21$11 inWon+$10.292356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e3a…7bdcbacked Under51c20.41$10 inWon+$104658.7%27 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f4…d6dabacked Over50c20.2$10 inLost-$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.