TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Magic, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,662 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac25…433fbacked Pistons52c10,000$5,200 inWon+$4,799.998038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Magic47c8,474$3,991 inLost-$3,991.4169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pistons53c4,705$2,509 inWon+$2,195.842,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Magic48c4,602$2,208 inLost-$2,208.421,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Magic48c1,836$881 inLost-$881.2830551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Magic46c800$364 inLost-$3642,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Magic74c708.24$525 inLost-$52518743.3%81 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Magic52c674.96$350 inLost-$35015246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Pistons53c463.75$247 inWon+$21718557.3%106 W · 79 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Pistons57c438.57$250 inWon+$188.5852861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Pistons53c350.87$186 inWon+$164.9146959.1%277 W · 192 L+28.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Magic20c258.06$52 inLost-$52.2576653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Magic47c256.65$121 inLost-$121.2689850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Pistons51c240$123 inWon+$116.7116251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Pistons54c230.39$124 inWon+$105.9859255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6835…ea68backed Magic41c211.25$87 inLost-$87.294037.5%15 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Pistons59c187.46$111 inWon+$76.8689048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc566…f8d7backed Pistons53c100$53 inWon+$4716547.3%78 W · 87 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Pistons55c94.89$52 inWon+$43.0525150.6%127 W · 124 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed Magic48c91.11$43 inLost-$43.3214153.9%76 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Pistons63c88.41$56 inWon+$32.7125958.3%151 W · 108 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Magic45c77.78$35 inLost-$359748.5%47 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84bb…25d3backed Magic52c61.82$32 inLost-$32.152737%10 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Pistons56c61.63$35 inWon+$27.121,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Magic37c52$19 inLost-$19.2413036.2%47 W · 83 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a46…bfb6backed Pistons53c47.34$25 inWon+$22.25475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Magic53c41$22 inLost-$21.7334247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x240c…4c62backed Magic44c40$18 inLost-$17.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Magic48c39.36$19 inLost-$18.8919445.9%89 W · 105 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Magic37c35$13 inLost-$12.956524.6%16 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…e5acbacked Magic43c33$14 inLost-$14.1920055.5%111 W · 89 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Magic48c20.83$10 inLost-$101,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Pistons50c20$10 inWon+$1010751.4%55 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cb…3636backed Pistons63c17.73$11 inWon+$6.5610369.9%72 W · 31 L+13.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+24.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.