TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,602 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Magic52c2,712$1,410 inWon+$1,301.5369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Pistons48c2,083$1,000 inLost-$1,0007459.5%44 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Magic55c1,788$990 inWon+$797.745050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Pistons48c1,458$700 inLost-$70017047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pistons45c1,111$500 inLost-$499.9550346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic51c1,013$516 inWon+$496.172,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Magic52c999.98$520 inWon+$479.9911864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Pistons48c525$252 inLost-$2529628.1%27 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98da…a9ebbacked Pistons49c510.2$250 inLost-$2507041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5871…0defbacked Pistons49c502.39$246 inLost-$246.174434.1%15 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Pistons48c416.67$200 inLost-$20013342.9%57 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Magic52c200$104 inWon+$961,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Pistons48c104.17$50 inLost-$5026545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Pistons44c61.97$27 inLost-$27.2762047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Magic56c42.86$24 inWon+$18.8640853.7%219 W · 189 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Pistons44c42.86$19 inLost-$18.8676247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Magic52c42.08$22 inWon+$20.219445.9%89 W · 105 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe840…733cbacked Pistons48c31.25$15 inLost-$152254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28af…7de0backed Magic55c25.24$14 inWon+$11.315453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…a32bbacked Magic56c24.36$14 inWon+$10.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f4…16f3backed Magic55c21.96$12 inWon+$9.962458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb028…5652backed Pistons48c21$10 inLost-$10.082356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.