TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,148 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fc4…1f41backed Pistons58c7,700$4,466 inLost-$4,466633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Magic42c5,000$2,100 inWon+$2,90011864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Magic42c3,242$1,362 inWon+$1,880.3950346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Pistons58c719.06$417 inLost-$417.0536247.2%171 W · 191 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…0caabacked Magic44c619.31$270 inWon+$349.312045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Magic41c600$248 inWon+$3521,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…7bfebacked Pistons10c595.04$59 inLost-$59.082524%6 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid+92%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f7…ef5bbacked Pistons57c387.7$221 inLost-$220.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pistons30c366.61$110 inLost-$110.131,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Pistons59c338.98$200 inLost-$20011440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Magic45c295.26$134 inWon+$161.263455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1884…a609backed Magic51c178.43$91 inWon+$87.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5345…666abacked Pistons19c157.11$30 inLost-$29.856942%29 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Magic47c147.71$70 inWon+$77.7122844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Pistons59c133.9$79 inLost-$798657%49 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Pistons53c104.36$55 inLost-$55.0921848.2%105 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2b5…f30dbacked Pistons59c89.83$53 inLost-$5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7f…a8e5backed Magic44c75$33 inWon+$4211732.5%38 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Pistons41c73.91$30 inLost-$30.481,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Magic41c71.2$29 inWon+$42.0169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf09d…d23fbacked Pistons26c69.98$18 inLost-$17.9310651.9%55 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed Pistons65c56.74$37 inLost-$36.8810743.9%47 W · 60 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Magic35c46.74$16 inWon+$30.389748.5%47 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b25…e9a6backed Magic49c30.48$15 inWon+$15.481457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Pistons62c26.32$16 inLost-$16.3240750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Magic38c26.32$10 inWon+$16.321,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Pistons50c24.37$12 inLost-$12.232654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked Pistons58c23$13 inLost-$13.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x416f…aedebacked Magic65c22.43$15 inWon+$7.85955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Pistons55c22.22$12 inLost-$12.222,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Magic67c17.67$12 inWon+$5.8776653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.