TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Lionel Messi: 3+ goals

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$193,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,141 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85bb…9adabacked Yes2c65,478$1,500 inLost-$1,50032429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Yes2c16,976$340 inLost-$339.5213811.6%16 W · 122 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f69…f76dbacked Yes2c11,192$235 inLost-$235.035121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yes2c10,431$200 inLost-$2006913%9 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf753…95cbbacked Yes2c4,688$94 inLost-$93.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes2c4,423$84 inLost-$84.3775729.3%222 W · 535 L-23.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c8…fad0backed Yes1c3,560$44 inLost-$43.68296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-78.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5626…80f0backed Yes2c2,500$50 inLost-$50621.6%1 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-79.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost-$4019317.1%33 W · 160 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fdf…86f1backed Yes3c1,923$50 inLost-$502114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes2c1,714$34 inLost-$34.281,13540.2%456 W · 679 L+5.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e7…f81cbacked Yes2c1,250$25 inLost-$259310.8%10 W · 83 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda9b…14b5backed Yes2c952.38$20 inLost-$203616.7%6 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Yes2c923.33$19 inLost-$19.39628.1%5 W · 57 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-73.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c870.29$16 inLost-$16.188,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c5d…0cd6backed Yes2c800$14 inLost-$14.41717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2235…f3d7backed Yes3c800$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Yes2c625$15 inLost-$1542332.9%139 W · 284 L-17.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb649…e988backed Yes2c548.99$11 inLost-$10.885437%20 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fd…d07ebacked Yes2c476.19$10 inLost-$102010%2 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-68.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a81…a925backed Yes4c394.74$15 inLost-$151118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c35…fb29backed Yes4c300$11 inLost-$10.53312.1%4 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 93. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.