TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Celticsof Thunder, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,498 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder47c707.85$334 inLost-$333.931,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics59c609.02$361 inWon+$248.078,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Thunder43c438$188 inLost-$188.3420741.1%85 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Celtics51c368.63$188 inWon+$180.636155.7%34 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b9…08b3backed Celtics51c194.47$99 inWon+$95.517638.2%29 W · 47 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Thunder38c176.38$66 inLost-$66.491,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Thunder43c168.73$73 inLost-$72.5591846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fc…55ccbacked Celtics67c160.25$107 inWon+$53.122263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe961…c32bbacked Celtics67c122.79$82 inWon+$40.9111459.6%68 W · 46 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Celtics57c111.59$64 inWon+$47.9837665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Celtics57c110.82$63 inWon+$47.491,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Celtics57c109.49$62 inWon+$47.0856447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Thunder45c100$45 inLost-$4518157.5%104 W · 77 L+21.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd0c7…4459backed Celtics64c78.69$50 inWon+$28.6911753.8%63 W · 54 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbce5…cc57backed Celtics50c49.5$25 inWon+$24.754763.8%30 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Thunder46c40$18 inLost-$18.42,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Celtics63c30$19 inWon+$11.161253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3486…b78ebacked Celtics61c30$18 inWon+$11.851275%9 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Thunder52c22.99$12 inLost-$11.9619051.6%98 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Celtics50c21.47$11 inWon+$10.6542153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.