TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,230

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,230 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 342 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Over52c27,709$14,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,243.7360351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over51c25,164$12,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,280.984,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under46c12,257$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,600.054,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under49c12,219$6,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,027.262,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under47c9,582$4,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4971,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over55c7,382$4,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.851,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32dd…c881backed Under47c5,700$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.831154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under44c4,872$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.974,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Over56c3,573$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.758756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under46c3,348$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.972,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under48c3,213$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.753,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Over49c3,127$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594.5943438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under45c3,101$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.871,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over54c3,060$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.4243542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c3,026$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.285,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Under48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4405143.1%22 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa81b…5473backed Under51c2,914$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ad…9610backed Under51c2,893$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under50c2,858$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.151,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff2e…0731backed Under51c2,801$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.5120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba50…354dbacked Under51c2,780$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1760…f748backed Under51c2,776$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed Over52c2,771$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.0412945.7%59 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ec…b4a5backed Over49c2,712$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Over49c2,698$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.9465939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf550…31a0backed Under49c2,671$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa64…4d09backed Over49c2,667$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ea…cdcfbacked Under51c2,594$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb16f…3393backed Under51c2,586$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3021…3a6abacked Over49c2,573$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8e…c6b0backed Over49c2,569$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7a…f4a8backed Over49c2,553$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.03250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e4…34b0backed Over49c2,548$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5010…712cbacked Over51c2,525$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x194a…aef0backed Over51c2,519$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over53c2,461$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.063,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x227a…b85bbacked Over49c2,446$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ef4…461fbacked Over49c2,420$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6336…ca2ebacked Under51c2,335$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x393e…882dbacked Over49c2,319$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.69250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8bf…fe46backed Under50c2,315$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under52c2,309$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.492,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafa5…8fc0backed Under51c2,256$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf6…f608backed Under49c2,255$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.95580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+60%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fc4…5838backed Over50c2,243$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb639…62bfbacked Under51c2,163$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9858…7664backed Under49c2,157$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2748…5eb9backed Under49c2,110$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e41…0e9cbacked Over49c2,095$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x327a…cf45backed Over51c2,086$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over53c2,012$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.341,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under48c1,957$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.361,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10c5…ca0bbacked Under51c1,937$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55e6…54e2backed Over51c1,881$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ffa…bb53backed Under51c1,858$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe440…6fa9backed Under51c1,789$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa54…ed58backed Over49c1,788$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc486…c1d2backed Under51c1,776$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b6…ef6dbacked Over49c1,775$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe346…b521backed Over50c1,755$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe152…a081backed Over50c1,744$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb360…4832backed Under51c1,743$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b7…1a3dbacked Under50c1,680$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under47c1,664$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.191,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…523bbacked Under51c1,664$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51bb…8680backed Over50c1,662$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x475f…3cc3backed Over51c1,629$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28b2…0d59backed Over49c1,599$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9e…f3efbacked Under51c1,582$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa51…0fb4backed Under50c1,575$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8460…2594backed Under51c1,572$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Over49c1,549$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.8486641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b1…672ebacked Over50c1,521$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f81…6f17backed Under51c1,513$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4240…f14fbacked Under49c1,486$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bab…36ecbacked Over51c1,484$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe693…7e7fbacked Over49c1,462$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe883…5708backed Over49c1,447$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a41…e48dbacked Under49c1,445$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…3191backed Under50c1,414$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under49c1,388$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.1220647.6%98 W · 108 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x179c…f2dcbacked Under51c1,385$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Over53c1,373$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.9127455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under47c1,355$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.732,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x386e…0039backed Over49c1,349$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.99475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87ec…de94backed Over49c1,339$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa20c…2bf0backed Under51c1,311$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.61475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e2…1e41backed Over49c1,310$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under51c1,300$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66384150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1628…7948backed Over49c1,283$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Under44c1,268$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.1327735%97 W · 180 L-30.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Under50c1,260$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.2158347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0fd…5165backed Over49c1,232$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad5…836abacked Over50c1,223$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…b87cbacked Over50c1,203$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Under46c1,186$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.347436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x383d…ff44backed Under51c1,166$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd758…09ccbacked Under50c1,142$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf234…7f34backed Over49c1,138$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under49c1,122$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55056043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.