TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Thunder, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$763,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $763,716 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Celtics52c152,262$79,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,227.541,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a0…9a09backed Celtics52c120,000$62,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,599.973560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder48c112,193$53,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,530.761,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder48c110,818$53,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,109.614,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Celtics52c65,385$34,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,384.6211457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Thunder48c60,000$28,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,80023147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Celtics51c32,874$16,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,251.7772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Thunder49c30,823$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Celtics53c30,785$16,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,469.061,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed Thunder48c19,202$9,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,285.75754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder47c18,717$8,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,801.913,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Celtics52c16,654$8,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9951,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Celtics51c15,500$7,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,594.9920545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder48c14,365$6,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,928.154,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Thunder47c13,538$6,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,362.6774748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Celtics52c13,000$6,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,24038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder49c12,000$5,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8801,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Thunder48c10,289$4,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,937.941,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e54…92e0backed Thunder48c9,625$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,620520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder47c9,170$4,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,287.36,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Thunder49c9,000$4,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,41017348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf303…5847backed Thunder48c8,333$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Celtics51c8,000$4,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,889.9787750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Celtics51c7,919$4,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,848.271,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Thunder48c7,708$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70016249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder40c6,432$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,543.898,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Thunder48c6,426$3,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,084.5829347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Thunder48c5,473$2,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,627.0411335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Thunder48c5,067$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,43230446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Celtics51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.9718547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Thunder48c4,215$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.2136351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Thunder48c4,102$1,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96970246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a47…0c54backed Thunder49c4,072$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.21833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-36.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Thunder47c4,000$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.932,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Thunder48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Celtics51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Celtics50c3,841$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.3682442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55e4…c3c6backed Celtics52c3,583$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.834443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Thunder49c3,512$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.8811543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Thunder48c3,500$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,69313148.1%63 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4401,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Thunder48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44035942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ee…f532backed Thunder49c2,879$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Thunder51c2,870$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.71,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef99…ef8dbacked Thunder51c2,856$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.449952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc87c…4119backed Celtics51c2,838$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.622100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b7a…b64abacked Thunder49c2,831$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe112…ccd7backed Thunder49c2,790$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45e6…30d7backed Thunder49c2,779$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Celtics53c2,736$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.927458.1%43 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a77…510fbacked Celtics51c2,711$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3042…5803backed Thunder49c2,693$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder50c2,688$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.823,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2460…4161backed Thunder49c2,610$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe01…2026backed Thunder49c2,595$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4427…1deebacked Celtics51c2,570$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac0f…f976backed Thunder49c2,505$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…1fbebacked Celtics51c2,481$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.693100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0e1…6cd3backed Celtics51c2,384$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Celtics52c2,321$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.0856843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbed3…f7cebacked Celtics51c2,292$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf63…cf8bbacked Celtics51c2,192$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac56…3f4fbacked Thunder49c2,183$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed0…56bebacked Celtics51c2,160$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7231…09febacked Thunder49c2,068$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Thunder47c2,021$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.9922643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3b…8d68backed Celtics51c1,988$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder51c1,964$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.514,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe4…8cefbacked Thunder49c1,959$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Celtics52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.2717247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1249…6edebacked Thunder49c1,854$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.46450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d63…0b78backed Thunder49c1,783$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.5613253.8%71 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af3…ed64backed Thunder49c1,721$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Celtics53c1,658$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.2544551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5805…f983backed Celtics51c1,643$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Celtics53c1,637$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.031,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Celtics52c1,633$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.9321152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d0…9398backed Celtics51c1,609$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b3…6b95backed Thunder50c1,601$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x833f…0881backed Celtics51c1,592$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe035…be08backed Celtics51c1,554$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c1…b13cbacked Celtics51c1,512$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.883100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Celtics53c1,509$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.4367252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe631…f935backed Thunder49c1,490$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89eb…29a1backed Thunder49c1,481$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d61…303dbacked Thunder51c1,410$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71910556.2%59 W · 46 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x609d…a789backed Thunder49c1,390$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ab…2739backed Thunder49c1,379$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Thunder48c1,377$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66132450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfab2…4bb2backed Thunder49c1,373$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa932…3f0cbacked Thunder49c1,314$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209d…9416backed Celtics51c1,311$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec3…dbbbbacked Celtics51c1,305$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba70…0240backed Celtics51c1,305$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Thunder49c1,300$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64252844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Thunder48c1,250$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60027746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder49c1,232$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.234,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x901f…74e9backed Thunder49c1,224$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.5710046%46 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c8b…c6eabacked Celtics51c1,205$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder47c1,191$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.772,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.