NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f5ebd4e31551e2ef1428ebf62cf063d936d629c4017abb1943d0019e56641de

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,123 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over	52c	20,347$10,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,766.56	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under	48c	17,623$8,462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,461.51	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	50c	2,618$1,321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,320.96	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	48c	2,231$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071.44	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea5…b5e6backed Under	59c	1,964$1,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,152.64	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdf2…23e3backed Under	26c	1,893$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+136.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	52c	1,800$935 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$864.7	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Over	66c	1,551$1,022 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$529	263	37.3%98 W · 165 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	40c	1,325$532 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$792.39	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over	50c	1,149$575 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$574.5	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	49c	1,071$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523.65	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Under	50c	1,009$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.09	259	51.4%133 W · 126 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3448…a954backed Over	52c	961.54$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.54	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Under	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0867…c3f4backed Under	3c	800$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	206	44.7%92 W · 114 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	50c	672.97$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.21	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Under	17c	547.85$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.73	207	41.1%85 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under	75c	503.91$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	462	58.2%269 W · 193 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	50c	445.56$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.33	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbcb8…2f90backed Over	51c	403.92$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.92	88	44.3%39 W · 49 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	389	46%179 W · 210 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0556…132abacked Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	93	46.2%43 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	219	50.2%110 W · 109 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b59…52f4backed Over	75c	266.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over	35c	234.44$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.33	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over	74c	216.52$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.19	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over	52c	154.41$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.09	672	48.8%328 W · 344 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under	49c	150.15$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.57	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over	66c	145.21$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.16	564	47.9%270 W · 294 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	70c	131.01$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.84	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over	60c	128$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.2	1,170	50.3%588 W · 582 L	+46.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under	46c	123.44$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.28	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over	43c	103.98$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.23	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over	45c	102.75$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.1	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	52c	101.69$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.81	890	48.8%434 W · 456 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	587	54.7%321 W · 266 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	181	57.5%104 W · 77 L	+21.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	423	48.5%205 W · 218 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf89f…32b0backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-5.2wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Under	57c	98.23$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.99	378	48.7%184 W · 194 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x199f…7e77backed Under	67c	96.33$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	68	61.8%42 W · 26 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Over	51c	96.15$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.11	970	49.5%480 W · 490 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…c413backed Under	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Over	51c	89.78$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.99	162	42.6%69 W · 93 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over	57c	86.75$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.68	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	47c	77.96$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.37	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x727d…c2e0backed Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	43c	76.47$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.59	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked Under	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	60c	73.38$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.05	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Under	49c	70$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	596	50.3%300 W · 296 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18d5…2bb6backed Over	50c	70$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	62	50%31 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under	49c	61.92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.34	686	45.5%312 W · 374 L	-22.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Over	48c	59.34$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.86	388	53.4%207 W · 181 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b1…18ffbacked Over	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+2.9wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Over	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	332	51.2%170 W · 162 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	52c	56.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.19	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	917	46.9%430 W · 487 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under	64c	41.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d2…a008backed Under	73c	41.07$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	129	61.2%79 W · 50 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Over	51c	41$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.09	201	40.3%81 W · 120 L	-8.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Under	52c	40.23$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	373	44.2%165 W · 208 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over	64c	36.8$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…af90backed Over	52c	35.87$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.22	224	54.5%122 W · 102 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…b635backed Under	47c	31.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.69	149	31.5%47 W · 102 L	-18.4wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa18f…c57abacked Under	51c	29.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+6.8wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5825…af22backed Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-19%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Over	47c	27.08$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.35	609	45.8%279 W · 330 L	-17.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab8…f3babacked Under	51c	26.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…8a76backed Over	52c	25.31$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.15	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5957…6437backed Over	52c	25.06$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.03	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…cd69backed Under	50c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Over	50c	21.22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.61	91	50.5%46 W · 45 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c3…e26dbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c54…476dbacked Under	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd650…8d74backed Over	68c	17$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.44	85	71.8%61 W · 24 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	68cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5this page
1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 12.5No won
Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5No won
Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 5.5Yes won
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Celtics won
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Celtics won
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Celtics won
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Celtics won
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Celtics won
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Celtics won
Thunder vs. CelticsCeltics won
Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineThunder won
Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Over won
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Over won
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Over won
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Over won
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Over won
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Over won
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Over won
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event