TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,565 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over41c3,243$1,345 inWon+$1,897.638,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Over48c2,178$1,046 inWon+$1,132.7411241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fca…e8edbacked Over55c2,043$1,122 inWon+$920.775738.6%22 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under69c1,993$1,375 inLost-$1,37565872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under52c1,730$899 inLost-$899.3464651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over48c1,161$555 inWon+$606.562,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Under46c1,090$501 inLost-$501.423047%108 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Under69c866.91$598 inLost-$598.1715551.6%80 W · 75 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under52c511.34$266 inLost-$265.92,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ec1…bfa6backed Under65c500$325 inLost-$3254266.7%28 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0867…c3f4backed Under5c499.98$25 inLost-$2520644.7%92 W · 114 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Under8c271$22 inLost-$21.6820741.1%85 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over46c103.11$47 inWon+$55.681,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under54c100$54 inLost-$541,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0095…42c1backed Over48c62.5$30 inWon+$32.521952.5%115 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over41c29.84$12 inWon+$17.792750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over51c27.77$14 inWon+$13.684,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Over45c23.59$11 inWon+$12.9527937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under53c20$11 inLost-$10.649247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over50c20$10 inWon+$103,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.