NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebc9e50bcae16af4b8501e9559aa9f27f0a020df9a0c43ddf96b2bdb762d3a66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Thunder, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,709 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Celtics | 48c | 25,059$12,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,030.68 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Thunder | 52c | 10,000$5,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,179.94 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32dd…c881backed Thunder | 52c | 6,048$3,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,144.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe028…89bfbacked Thunder | 52c | 5,263$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Celtics | 69c | 3,993$2,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.02 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 51c | 3,653$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.28 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder | 52c | 3,587$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.37 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 49c | 2,933$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.29 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Celtics | 49c | 2,153$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.8 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Celtics | 49c | 1,544$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.44 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 27c | 1,520$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked Thunder | 52c | 1,496$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.92 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Thunder | 40c | 1,131$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.55 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder | 51c | 800.62$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.32 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Thunder | 52c | 655.65$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.94 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…9a2bbacked Thunder | 54c | 435.97$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.96 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Celtics | 48c | 240.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.06 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Thunder | 52c | 208.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Thunder | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…098abacked Celtics | 44c | 165.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Thunder | 54c | 152.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 52c | 134.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ba…67e9backed Thunder | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Thunder | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Thunder | 40c | 98.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Thunder | 53c | 97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Thunder | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Thunder | 55c | 82.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Thunder | 53c | 80.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder | 52c | 55.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Thunder | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 50c | 42.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Thunder | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Thunder | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Thunder | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…4132backed Celtics | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…7a96backed Thunder | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Celtics | 48c | 35.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e57…ddc3backed Celtics | 48c | 33.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Thunder | 56c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…1d6ebacked Thunder | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed Thunder | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Celtics | 47c | 27.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…f506backed Thunder | 54c | 23.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Thunder | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Thunder | 55c | 19.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 5.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Celtics won
- Thunder vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.