TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,237 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Celtics20c350.1$69 inLost-$69.0452230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Thunder80c261$209 inWon+$52.277549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c84…d6c8backed Thunder57c174.56$99 inWon+$75.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Celtics43c174.56$75 inLost-$75.062,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Thunder78c84.95$66 inWon+$18.931,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Thunder74c58$43 inWon+$15.121,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Celtics30c52$15 inLost-$15.447852.6%41 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Celtics71c49.56$35 inLost-$35.181,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dcc…45f6backed Thunder77c49.27$38 inWon+$11.336553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Celtics28c42.93$12 inLost-$11.854928.6%14 W · 35 L-8.7wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Celtics49c33.96$17 inLost-$16.6455751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Thunder73c30$22 inWon+$8.190357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf0…4046backed Thunder73c30$22 inWon+$8.18164.2%52 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Thunder76c20$15 inWon+$4.8714471.5%103 W · 41 L+22.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder76c16.95$13 inWon+$4.085,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.