NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa71fedb6afe5c429fef5bcf4500880a28e5dc6a23db7d29688f713f99be2a683
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,398 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 5,041$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 52c | 4,654$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,212.73 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 2,773$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 17c | 1,248$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.89 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 47c | 1,060$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.2 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0867…c3f4backed Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 932.48$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Over | 74c | 799.99$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 689.55$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.38 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…2b32backed Under | 46c | 607.51$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 476$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.72 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 75c | 333$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…bfa6backed Under | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 285$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 55c | 280.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.58 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Over | 54c | 210$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 45c | 196.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Under | 47c | 141.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 138.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 118.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Under | 47c | 117.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 103.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 18c | 93.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…30ddbacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 65.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 55c | 61.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 58.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 44c | 49.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 48c | 49.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…ef51backed Under | 47c | 44.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 40c | 42.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Under | 47c | 42.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Under | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 79c | 37.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 200 | 49%98 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 519 | 46.8%243 W · 276 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 43c | 33.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 53c | 32.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Under | 64c | 27.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…8a76backed Over | 54c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 52c | 20.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…50c2backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 79c | 16.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 5.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Celtics won
- Thunder vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.