Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb09df054a8515fe185142b7379ca8977b0ca26deb777208f79c5bf87dfb319c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 1,167$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 814.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 742.36$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 650.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 501.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 15c | 475.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 11c | 460.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 6c | 459.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 433$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 339.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 319$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 289.91$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 9c | 289.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 282.41$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 77c | 266.08$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 249$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 19c | 235.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 72c | 224.21$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 200.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 20c | 199.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 170.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 154.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 46c | 134$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 23c | 124.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 119.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes | 13c | 118$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 14c | 117.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 116.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 16c | 115.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 112.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 47c | 105.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 100.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 97.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 13c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 46c | 88.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 48c | 85.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 84.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 46c | 77.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 17c | 72.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 70.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 47c | 67.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 49c | 65.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 63.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 63.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 26c | 62.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 58.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 49c | 58.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e20…06c5backed Yes | 45c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 57.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…d453backed Yes | 23c | 51.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 50.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 52c | 45.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 44.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 43.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 48c | 39.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd7…dfe9backed Yes | 31c | 36.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 48c | 34.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed No | 60c | 34.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 31c | 31.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…354cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 66c | 24.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 24.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.