Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x024d470332fa713424a39c2535d010a2e23f8d1d575878a74768742bf657bb6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 49c | 1,495$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.5 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 62c | 1,230$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.94 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 52c | 550.38$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.3 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 35c | 536.19$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.94 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 50c | 524$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 470.94$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 442.22$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 57c | 431.23$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 427.74$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 47c | 423.95$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 61c | 404.67$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.09 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 395$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 63c | 394.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 68c | 391.02$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 39c | 352.27$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.48 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 341.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 320.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 32c | 313.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 35c | 280.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 279.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 271$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 66c | 256.63$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 69c | 239.67$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 233.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 205$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 198.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 197.77$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.21 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 36c | 188.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 180$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041a…656dbacked Yes | 73c | 169.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 72c | 167.88$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 167.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 65c | 162.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 34c | 143.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 75c | 132.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 75c | 131.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 124.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 73c | 116.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 39c | 102.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 14c | 102.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 21c | 101.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 64c | 98.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed Yes | 30c | 91.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 52c | 91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 90.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 32c | 89.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed Yes | 20c | 88.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 87.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 63c | 87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08de…d2cabacked No | 12c | 86.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 83.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 60c | 79.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 32c | 79.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 48c | 79.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 68c | 74.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 73c | 73.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 71.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 66c | 69.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 36c | 68.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 64c | 67.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 40c | 63.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 34c | 63.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 43c | 63.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 67c | 58.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 57.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 53.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 28c | 53.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 51.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 50.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…00b7backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 67c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 28c | 48.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 45.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 45.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 67c | 45.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 55c | 42.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 58c | 42.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 64c | 41.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 41.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 74c | 37.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 57c | 37.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.