World Politics · resolved market
Will NewJeans perform again by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd463bbd69185ef85db2c2271cbe34deda95e5f58a53b54e6959b2992dd76549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,668$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.81 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…1305backed No | 56c | 1,200$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Yes | 26c | 1,026$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.89 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed No | 75c | 883.81$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…1c62backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 76c | 505$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 15c | 460.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…a4d2backed No | 72c | 427.97$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…7788backed Yes | 31c | 396$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 391.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…f375backed Yes | 31c | 360.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf966…86e7backed Yes | 29c | 348.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…5f43backed Yes | 11c | 347.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccbf…6d30backed Yes | 20c | 337.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 13c | 333.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed No | 42c | 278.95$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.54 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 20c | 274$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 260.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 63c | 251.59$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 60c | 240$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 238.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed No | 60c | 226.39$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed Yes | 10c | 204.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde85…fed5backed Yes | 34c | 196.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…88e5backed No | 53c | 157.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…7a1cbacked No | 42c | 142.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…14aabacked Yes | 17c | 140.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…4bedbacked Yes | 50c | 121.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 67c | 121$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…b303backed No | 75c | 119$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 112.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 24c | 111$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…51cebacked Yes | 10c | 104.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…5bd7backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 32c | 75.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b7…6936backed No | 25c | 71.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa0…913ebacked Yes | 61c | 59.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 40c | 51.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked No | 50c | 47.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 35c | 42.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6f…8d41backed No | 56c | 41.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…d9dbbacked No | 52c | 38.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed No | 77c | 35.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed No | 76c | 35.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…f447backed Yes | 67c | 29.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6381…5ea2backed Yes | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 44c | 26.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.