Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd8188657ea7b652a033ec12d3560262f3b9fe7b0978c86223683d627e464d9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 4,471$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.45 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,755$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.77 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 7c | 795$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 2c | 641.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.04 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 15c | 639.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.99 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed No | 2c | 583.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 517.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 8c | 404.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.04 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 329.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 13c | 309.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.65 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 297.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.64 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed No | 7c | 234.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 231.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 217.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 211.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.83 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 69c | 210.31$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 14c | 187.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.02 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 51c | 165$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 161.9$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 143.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 130.34$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 20c | 130.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 127.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 123$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed No | 11c | 117.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Yes | 12c | 100.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 19c | 80.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 35c | 67.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 47c | 66.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 67c | 56.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 55c | 52.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 49.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 64c | 38.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 31.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 58c | 25.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 66c | 22.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 55c | 20.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 69c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 67c | 19.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 68c | 17.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.