Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf8d63fe5155c088784dcb2db8a6eeac4dc6a7ecbb3069a2cc852d89b2c9e5b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 32c | 2,271$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.98 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 775.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6491…fd86backed Yes | 46c | 697.7$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 599.98$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 539.34$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 538.53$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.94 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 499$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 31c | 402.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 324$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 267$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 258.72$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 37c | 247.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 231.35$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 219$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 210.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 193.23$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 11c | 190.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 173.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 161.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 36c | 161$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed Yes | 37c | 147.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 34c | 139.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 18c | 129$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 127.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 66c | 120.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 119.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 62c | 116$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 33c | 113.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked No | 54c | 108.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 103.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 34c | 101.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 100.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8573…c954backed Yes | 39c | 91.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 64c | 91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 90.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 34c | 89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 69.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 63c | 63.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 63.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 21c | 63.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 33c | 60.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…d361backed Yes | 39c | 56.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked Yes | 40c | 53.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 51.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 50.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 47.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 43.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 40.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 66c | 39.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked No | 71c | 38.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…ff90backed Yes | 28c | 38.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 39c | 34.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…19a2backed No | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 47c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 68c | 27.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 56c | 25.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 22.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 57c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 74c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.