Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04fe7337f376f8931cd3068461cec68037535ce97abcf13c042152baf13befde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,067$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 814.7$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.67 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 39c | 512.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.51 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 509$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 35c | 472.36$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.09 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 314$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 288$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 276.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 258.73$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 214$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 37c | 207.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 181.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 61c | 163.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 161.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 128$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 126.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 121.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 35c | 119.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 40c | 119$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 9c | 113.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 102$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 90.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 90.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f5…edd9backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 80.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 40c | 73.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 69.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 68.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 66.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 66.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 42c | 64.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 39c | 55.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 62c | 48.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 64c | 48.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 42.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 36.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 60c | 32.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 37c | 31.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 43c | 31.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…9383backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 30.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 65c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 28.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 39c | 27.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 39c | 27.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 71c | 27.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 25.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 63c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 60c | 19.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 65c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 62c | 16.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.