Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0095dae0824b19edfeb7ddd76a9eb840a2e4c331c9c135bf68cfe7695006f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 1,572$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.21 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 435.6$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 263.03$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 249.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 52c | 240.1$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 48c | 219.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 53c | 209.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 200.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 65c | 170.79$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 27c | 160.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 63c | 149.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 51c | 144.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 51c | 133.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 47c | 120$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 119.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 117.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 101.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 100.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 91.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 62c | 91.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 87.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 54c | 83.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 54c | 81.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 23c | 81.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 51c | 76.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 68.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 57.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 53c | 50.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 52c | 41.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…abc5backed Yes | 50c | 40.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 46c | 35.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 34.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 51c | 34.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 31.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked No | 80c | 31.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 49c | 30.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 40c | 30.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…27ddbacked Yes | 40c | 30.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 27.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 57c | 27.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 51c | 27.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 27.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 25.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 17.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.