Asian League · resolved market
Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde1a86f5dff5b8a0f1dc9938df1c055ef1980c4aefd41ab7e6835d77021aa1cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 8c | 4,884$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,516.14 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 6c | 4,315$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,055.6 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 4,074$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,132.96 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…ed67backed Over | 7c | 1,229$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 8c | 952.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.69 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…77e6backed Under | 6c | 541.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…8220backed Over | 18c | 540.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Over | 40c | 415.17$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 53c | 405.8$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.92 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 27c | 402.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.82 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4208…a0c2backed Over | 76c | 280$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 71c | 275.42$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.58 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 47c | 203.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 26c | 159.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.43 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Under | 70c | 149.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 110.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed Over | 21c | 93.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 41c | 92.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 77c | 81.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 59c | 80.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Under | 61c | 66.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 70c | 52.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 47c | 50.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…3a81backed Under | 62c | 32.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 69c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…2580backed Over | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 70c | 26.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 79c | 24.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 66 | 92.4%61 W · 5 L | +17.8wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b3…3783backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 5.5this page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Kashiwa Reysol O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Kashiwa Reysol O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: V-Varen Nagasaki O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: V-Varen Nagasaki O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.