Asian League · resolved market
Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf24de0b654f6edfcc34cbf6051f677f9f2f3caac06dbe94679f8fc8602f5fc97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 17c | 8,128$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,768.26 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 18c | 4,700$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,846.9 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 3,964$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,326.36 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…11c1backed Under | 74c | 2,568$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 2,457$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.43 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 15c | 1,666$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.1 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed Over | 75c | 1,451$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Under | 45c | 1,434$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.4 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 15c | 1,373$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.46 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 45c | 1,303$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.13 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…8220backed Over | 13c | 590.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 22c | 487.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 62c | 480.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 15c | 446.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…90dfbacked Under | 56c | 361.39$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…2fefbacked Under | 30c | 328.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 15c | 303.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.15 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 72c | 248.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 922 | 35.1%324 W · 598 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 33c | 239.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 201.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Over | 21c | 200.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 15c | 188.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.82 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 56c | 153.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 57c | 151.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…6f2abacked Over | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 261 | 48.7%127 W · 134 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 41c | 139$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…c06dbacked Over | 15c | 127.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…84fabacked Over | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 70c | 103$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1,022 | 41.5%424 W · 598 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…e303backed Over | 18c | 101.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 53c | 101.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 400 | 51%204 W · 196 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 22c | 93.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 424 | 25.9%110 W · 314 L | -32.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…58acbacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9444…d40fbacked Over | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 52c | 85.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 39c | 79.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 38c | 79.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Over | 33c | 72.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 65c | 72.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 101 | 40.6%41 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 63c | 56.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 69c | 54.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b3…3783backed Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5this page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Kashiwa Reysol O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Kashiwa Reysol O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: V-Varen Nagasaki O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: V-Varen Nagasaki O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.