South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde561e5792e66f5a7a0e34ef5a17863fb4484913945ea0c7425f99ae290ebb3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.95 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 59c | 294.27$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.62 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Under | 60c | 208.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Under | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 39c | 124.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 107.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa7…8332backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 61c | 80.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…9626backed Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 55c | 60.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…56bcbacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…f7adbacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…6791backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…362bbacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eac…de53backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…9cfbbacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d4…2613backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…cae2backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 61c | 41.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed Under | 61c | 40.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…6fe4backed Under | 60c | 40.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…f0cfbacked Under | 60c | 40.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…3880backed Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…673ebacked Under | 64c | 38.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Under | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…c179backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 61c | 22.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…1688backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 2.5this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Club Necaxa O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Club Necaxa O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 4.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Club Necaxa (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Club Necaxa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.