South American Leagues · resolved market

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 5.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57e56ff6bb9d359f8595f8048c012f5dda6658184dac0e3e84061067a0b36a2b

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $82,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $91,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,559 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Under	77c	27,204$20,986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,217.78	2,281	34.3%782 W · 1,499 L	-30.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	21c	12,533$2,681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,680.65	5,757	45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L	+94.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked Over	10c	7,429$719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.4	106	18.9%20 W · 86 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	25c	4,421$1,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,095.51	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Over	11c	2,727$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.71	200	36.5%73 W · 127 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x975c…6343backed Over	27c	1,901$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.97	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	19c	1,506$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.6	3,749	38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L	-33.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over	44c	1,502$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661	129	40.3%52 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Over	10c	1,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e4b…4ebcbacked Over	26c	1,316$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.35	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x851b…961ebacked Over	41c	1,230$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501	61	31.1%19 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xff4b…6555backed Over	25c	1,117$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.13	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Over	27c	1,042$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.48	646	33.1%214 W · 432 L	-24.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	20c	1,034$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.01	2,170	43.7%948 W · 1,222 L	-53.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dfe…d954backed Over	23c	955.15$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.06	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…002fbacked Over	28c	806.05$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.64	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac48…e505backed Over	27c	751.98$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.14	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1134…47e5backed Under	76c	749.77$573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.77	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	70cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfaa7…977abacked Over	27c	585.51$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.22	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Over	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	71c	475.27$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.21	256	35.9%92 W · 164 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26da…3b4cbacked Under	73c	464.1$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.31	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153a…af29backed Over	16c	457$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.62	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+4.7wins	+0.18per pick	47cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3756…b936backed Over	28c	432.06$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.01	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	12c	414$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.68	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	+7.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under	74c	405.41$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.41	220	49.1%108 W · 112 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Under	55c	306.84$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.2	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.16per pick	39cpaid	+64.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8152…5b51backed Under	75c	305.27$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.27	128	50%64 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b38…6dc8backed Over	54c	291.26$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.47	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	34cpaid	+82%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	14c	286.28$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.17	1,302	50.2%653 W · 649 L	-13.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	27c	267.27$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.45	517	50.7%262 W · 255 L	+28.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf45…63b8backed Over	8c	245.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.87	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94fb…ab54backed Over	27c	235.4$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.34	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.16per pick	37cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under	56c	234.21$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.05	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d1c…3347backed Over	13c	225.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	215	38.1%82 W · 133 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde7e…564dbacked Over	17c	215.27$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.17	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under	55c	200$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90eb…c8a5backed Over	24c	193.08$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over	26c	192.44$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.37	464	49.6%230 W · 234 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Under	57c	191.86$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.86	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e6e…1914backed Over	27c	188.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Over	26c	188.95$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.65	506	56.3%285 W · 221 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4f…32e0backed Over	19c	187.73$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.38	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	34c	185.93$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.83	1,328	57%757 W · 571 L	+57.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9851…c31dbacked Over	24c	185.79$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb269…9548backed Over	8c	176.49$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over	26c	151.49$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.07	694	53.5%371 W · 323 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Over	13c	149.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	43.1%28 W · 37 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2620…2a78backed Over	27c	148.18$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39bd…35dabacked Over	45c	146.78$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over	12c	131$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	491	36.3%178 W · 313 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd04…c5e1backed Under	76c	129.12$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	24	87.5%21 W · 3 L	+2.7wins	+0.11per pick	76cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96c4…f7b8backed Under	59c	118.64$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.64	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under	71c	109.75$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.7	519	45.7%237 W · 282 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	76c	105.99$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.83	1,038	49.4%513 W · 525 L	+14.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Under	75c	104.15$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.04	107	66.4%71 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x672d…97f1backed Over	27c	101.88$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over	25c	100.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.47	331	52.6%174 W · 157 L	+8.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under	65c	100.44$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.13	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb3…5fe5backed Under	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…1e46backed Over	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Over	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	197	11.2%22 W · 175 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	13c	98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	184	26.1%48 W · 136 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3309…209dbacked Under	71c	96.72$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.05	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc70…4bf1backed Over	27c	78.82$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4673…5668backed Over	16c	70.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Under	60c	69.32$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.95	155	54.2%84 W · 71 L	+9.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	73c	53.02$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.32	575	40.2%231 W · 344 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdbec…04d0backed Over	32c	41.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under	51c	40.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.85	184	46.2%85 W · 99 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d12…ccc3backed Under	70c	35.71$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f3…f487backed Under	73c	27.26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.26	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-4.0wins	-0.31per pick	61cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.12	485	47.6%231 W · 254 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Under	80c	23.28$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.67	49	65.3%32 W · 17 L	+4.2wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under	71c	22.35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.54	230	44.3%102 W · 128 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa08e…379bbacked Under	74c	20.1$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.18	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f73…c2d5backed Under	56c	19.64$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.64	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6437…93b1backed Under	75c	17.04$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.32	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 5.5this page
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Club Necaxa O/U 1.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Club Necaxa O/U 2.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 2.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 0.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Club Necaxa (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Club Necaxa won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 5.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event