South American Leagues · resolved market

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43cc36c8158f1f5882829951c930f1180d32c75fb8caf7ae8a0a16483f668989

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,216 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf5f9…87b0backed Under	36c	13,366$4,812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,811.69	183	52.5%96 W · 87 L	+10.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	65c	4,679$3,061 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,618.58	5,757	45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L	+94.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under	28c	4,478$1,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250	220	49.1%108 W · 112 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over	64c	4,320$2,770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,549.55	491	36.3%178 W · 313 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	33c	2,768$917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$917.08	1,537	45.2%695 W · 842 L	+21.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	64c	2,500$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$899.93	347	47.6%165 W · 182 L	+17.7wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	72c	2,375$1,712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$662.77	3,749	38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L	-33.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acc…c5b9backed Over	66c	2,331$1,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$781.07	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+5.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Over	64c	1,972$1,261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$711.13	191	55.5%106 W · 85 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa9…09fabacked Under	3c	1,625$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	106	35.8%38 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+106.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0145…35d0backed Over	64c	1,563$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$562.5	30	76.7%23 W · 7 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	68cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	64c	1,464$937 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$526.96	2,335	51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Under	30c	1,250$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.82	200	36.5%73 W · 127 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c36…4da4backed Under	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over	64c	990.92$634 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356.73	1,282	53.7%689 W · 593 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over	67c	883.37$595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.8	194	47.9%93 W · 101 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	66c	857.92$566 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$291.69	723	50.5%365 W · 358 L	-24.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	65c	799.55$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.5	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Over	53c	785$416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368.95	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Over	65c	749.34$487 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.27	44	77.3%34 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	75cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	34c	727.02$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.19	575	40.2%231 W · 344 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	36c	649.25$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.73	2,514	39%980 W · 1,534 L	-32.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	64c	539.39$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.46	1,231	53.9%663 W · 568 L	+12.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	44c	455.83$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.58	217	52.1%113 W · 104 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under	37c	353.54$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.81	1,439	37.5%540 W · 899 L	+4.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	40c	308.67$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.64	2,281	34.3%782 W · 1,499 L	-30.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…ab54backed Under	30c	304.72$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.42	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.16per pick	37cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Over	72c	304.51$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.53	194	37.1%72 W · 122 L	-7.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf4e…3309backed Over	64c	303.98$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.43	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	34c	247.24$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.88	898	46.1%414 W · 484 L	-11.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe331…0163backed Under	8c	227.39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	54	64.8%35 W · 19 L	+8.8wins	+0.16per pick	48cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	73c	206.99$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.2	485	47.6%231 W · 254 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Over	71c	200$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	190	53.2%101 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Under	37c	181.19$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.04	668	37.1%248 W · 420 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Over	64c	178.59$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over	66c	169.05$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.48	292	45.2%132 W · 160 L	-24.0wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	33c	155.67$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.27	896	45.4%407 W · 489 L	-23.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	75c	140.38$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.28	506	43.9%222 W · 284 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Over	65c	126$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.1	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	64c	116.6$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.46	336	58.3%196 W · 140 L	+32.4wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Under	31c	113.84$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	646	33.1%214 W · 432 L	-24.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	65c	113$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.92	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	+7.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Under	27c	112.68$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.95	97	40.2%39 W · 58 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Over	75c	107.1$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	552	50.2%277 W · 275 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over	69c	92.07$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.32	331	52.6%174 W · 157 L	+8.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under	34c	87.01$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…1e46backed Over	59c	81.36$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.36	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	33c	80.27$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.37	1,038	49.4%513 W · 525 L	+14.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Over	64c	80$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	57	24.6%14 W · 43 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a4f…32e0backed Over	61c	74.34$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.12	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8041…fc83backed Under	36c	70$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdd…bd60backed Under	35c	68.03$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	77	41.6%32 W · 45 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	70c	67.14$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.24	230	44.3%102 W · 128 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…5d07backed Under	21c	65.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	352	40.3%142 W · 210 L	-28.0wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over	63c	63.29$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.12	787	56.4%444 W · 343 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over	76c	62.03$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.02	519	45.7%237 W · 282 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dfe…d954backed Over	55c	57.31$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.73	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	72c	55.2$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.46	313	55.6%174 W · 139 L	+24.8wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x056b…5a03backed Under	36c	52.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+4.4wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Over	70c	52$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-26%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	71c	45.56$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.34	256	35.9%92 W · 164 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under	30c	44.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	58c	43.91$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.25	2,170	43.7%948 W · 1,222 L	-53.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked Over	60c	41.66$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.66	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over	52c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	251	47.8%120 W · 131 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Under	37c	38.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	62	32.3%20 W · 42 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	73c	38.08$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.28	517	50.7%262 W · 255 L	+28.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Over	75c	37.14$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.32	164	53.7%88 W · 76 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over	67c	36.75$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.03	464	49.6%230 W · 234 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…002fbacked Over	52c	36.71$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.62	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Over	68c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.52	720	58.8%423 W · 297 L	+29.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	35c	35.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	951	55.8%531 W · 420 L	+31.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Over	61c	32.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.57	65	43.1%28 W · 37 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Over	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadd8…53c9backed Under	37c	30.05$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	92	40.2%37 W · 55 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac48…e505backed Over	49c	28.41$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.49	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Over	68c	28$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.96	119	44.5%53 W · 66 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfaa7…977abacked Over	49c	25.94$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.23	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Over	70c	19.99$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	45	60%27 W · 18 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a97…90b1backed Over	68c	17.34$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.55	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over	62c	16.25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.16	675	48%324 W · 351 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5this page
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Club Necaxa O/U 1.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Club Necaxa O/U 2.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 2.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 0.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 4.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Club Necaxa (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Club Necaxa won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event