South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x262e3791376ef3db183f6e3fc8d28f07d94d2de108c03ce8914348ad43d0e1f2

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Deportivo Toluca FCof Deportivo Toluca FC, Club Necaxa
Resolved: Aug 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,038
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $39,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,038 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	42c	4,543$1,908 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,634.73	58	50%29 W · 29 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Club Necaxa	63c	4,000$2,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,510	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Deportivo Toluca FC	40c	3,424$1,360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,063.37	347	47.6%165 W · 182 L	+17.7wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Club Necaxa	49c	2,234$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+4.6wins	+0.17per pick	48cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Club Necaxa	48c	1,731$839 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$839.47	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Club Necaxa	58c	1,451$842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$841.64	2,335	51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x851b…961ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC	44c	1,378$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$776.69	61	31.1%19 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Deportivo Toluca FC	42c	1,188$499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$688.87	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Deportivo Toluca FC	41c	700$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$413	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Club Necaxa	60c	599.93$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.96	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Deportivo Toluca FC	43c	539.03$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.25	1,282	53.7%689 W · 593 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Club Necaxa	59c	485.43$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.72	646	33.1%214 W · 432 L	-24.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Club Necaxa	4c	398.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	210	44.3%93 W · 117 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf4…2680backed Club Necaxa	61c	363.93$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b0c…a1aabacked Club Necaxa	58c	344.83$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…1e46backed Club Necaxa	60c	305.78$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	43c	277.88$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.39	1,231	53.9%663 W · 568 L	+12.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf45…63b8backed Club Necaxa	4c	268.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Deportivo Toluca FC	42c	236.52$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.18	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…8148backed Deportivo Toluca FC	40c	222$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.2	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Club Necaxa	8c	216$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	1,537	45.2%695 W · 842 L	+21.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed Club Necaxa	56c	214.17$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.94	182	47.8%87 W · 95 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Club Necaxa	60c	200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	288	51.7%149 W · 139 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Club Necaxa	29c	193.73$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.12	256	35.9%92 W · 164 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Deportivo Toluca FC	78c	179.36$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.76	601	56.2%338 W · 263 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Club Necaxa	14c	178.85$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.04	92	7.6%7 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Deportivo Toluca FC	76c	178.53$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.1	951	55.8%531 W · 420 L	+31.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Club Necaxa	51c	175.62$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.7	331	52.6%174 W · 157 L	+8.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Club Necaxa	61c	148$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.28	2,514	39%980 W · 1,534 L	-32.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Deportivo Toluca FC	56c	136.12$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.29	506	56.3%285 W · 221 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Deportivo Toluca FC	64c	131.69$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.9	464	49.6%230 W · 234 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94fb…ab54backed Club Necaxa	39c	126.04$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.66	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.16per pick	37cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Deportivo Toluca FC	46c	125.06$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.39	519	45.7%237 W · 282 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0962…6e40backed Deportivo Toluca FC	43c	116.28$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.28	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Club Necaxa	60c	115.9$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.54	197	42.1%83 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Deportivo Toluca FC	43c	109.07$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.49	1,439	37.5%540 W · 899 L	+4.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Club Necaxa	41c	102.44$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	155	54.2%84 W · 71 L	+9.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Club Necaxa	58c	98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.84	720	58.8%423 W · 297 L	+29.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3756…b936backed Club Necaxa	23c	86.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.67	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Deportivo Toluca FC	64c	84.85$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.42	694	53.5%371 W · 323 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0acbbacked Club Necaxa	59c	77.97$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	195	43.1%84 W · 111 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Deportivo Toluca FC	39c	76.92$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.92	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac48…e505backed Club Necaxa	21c	76.71$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9a…3493backed Deportivo Toluca FC	40c	75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.60per pick	40cpaid	+150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa7…977abacked Club Necaxa	16c	69.63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3309…209dbacked Club Necaxa	60c	68.5$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.1	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Club Necaxa	61c	57$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.77	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Club Necaxa	61c	57$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.77	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Deportivo Toluca FC	59c	56.16$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.99	2,281	34.3%782 W · 1,499 L	-30.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Club Necaxa	58c	55.53$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.07	156	51.9%81 W · 75 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Club Necaxa	54c	52.63$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.42	184	46.2%85 W · 99 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Deportivo Toluca FC	38c	52.62$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.62	65	43.1%28 W · 37 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Deportivo Toluca FC	40c	52.53$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.52	5,757	45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L	+94.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Club Necaxa	54c	52.22$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.18	575	40.2%231 W · 344 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf175…de7cbacked Club Necaxa	60c	52.13$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.28	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.27per pick	57cpaid	+60.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Club Necaxa	59c	48.16$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	668	37.1%248 W · 420 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Club Necaxa	60c	45.28$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	44c	44.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.69	485	47.6%231 W · 254 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	41c	42.37$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	217	65.4%142 W · 75 L	+24.1wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Club Necaxa	59c	39.97$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.69	2,611	54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L	+25.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Deportivo Toluca FC	42c	37.5$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	143	59.4%85 W · 58 L	+8.5wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Club Necaxa	58c	35.5$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Deportivo Toluca FC	42c	35.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.59	296	53%157 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Club Necaxa	58c	33.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	104	58.7%61 W · 43 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…002fbacked Club Necaxa	38c	29.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC	42c	28$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.3	491	36.3%178 W · 313 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Club Necaxa	58c	26.73$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.56	43	72.1%31 W · 12 L	+5.9wins	+0.14per pick	58cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1573…a727backed Deportivo Toluca FC	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…6471backed Club Necaxa	61c	22.49$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	24	70.8%17 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Club Necaxa	60c	20.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	191	64.4%123 W · 68 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1fd…10ccbacked Club Necaxa	69c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc70…4bf1backed Club Necaxa	61c	19.68$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ee3…2e6abacked Club Necaxa	58c	18.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)this page
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Club Necaxa O/U 1.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Club Necaxa O/U 2.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 2.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 0.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 4.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Club Necaxa (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Club Necaxa won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event