South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57dc027d90914315e206303133ff67c340b1fa2cc941d9ece84f93fdaae946ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Club Necaxaof Deportivo Toluca FC, Club Necaxa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…4803backed Club Necaxa | 68c | 1,500$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.76 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Club Necaxa | 63c | 1,249$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.08 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 32c | 1,057$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.47 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 19c | 893.12$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Club Necaxa | 55c | 564.54$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.79 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Club Necaxa | 51c | 409.39$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.47 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Club Necaxa | 68c | 293.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 256 | 35.9%92 W · 164 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 33c | 244.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 206.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Club Necaxa | 41c | 137.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 45c | 129.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 46c | 112.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 30c | 106.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Club Necaxa | 72c | 102.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 103 | 65%67 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Club Necaxa | 43c | 97.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 45c | 95.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 21c | 93.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Club Necaxa | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Club Necaxa | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 42c | 89.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Club Necaxa | 52c | 85.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 29c | 77.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Club Necaxa | 50c | 71.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Club Necaxa | 70c | 71.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 58c | 69.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…4938backed Club Necaxa | 63c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Club Necaxa | 52c | 61.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 31c | 61.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Club Necaxa | 72c | 55.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 37c | 53.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Club Necaxa | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…50d7backed Club Necaxa | 43c | 47.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Club Necaxa | 37c | 45.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Club Necaxa | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Club Necaxa | 68c | 41.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Club Necaxa | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Club Necaxa | 38c | 38.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 30c | 37.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Club Necaxa | 43c | 29.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked Club Necaxa | 49c | 24.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Club Necaxa | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Club Necaxa | 79c | 13.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Club Necaxa O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Club Necaxa O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 4.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Club Necaxa (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.