MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf5f245a47ae9c5dfa4ad2a65298e41736d33f7ffedb21507d7ad5eef94ab16f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 36c | 33,345$11,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,445.17 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 19,383$11,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,843.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 46c | 12,687$5,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,779.3 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 4,350$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 3,357$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 52c | 2,786$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.96 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 64c | 2,199$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 64c | 1,802$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 52c | 1,269$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 59c | 1,243$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.54 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 37c | 1,139$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.4 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 936.9$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…5d59backed Over | 41c | 876.2$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 850.03$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.53 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 32c | 825$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 62c | 765.92$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.05 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Under | 34c | 583.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.43 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Under | 46c | 505.42$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.1 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 23c | 422.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 66c | 420$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 39c | 412$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 400.82$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 33c | 399.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 46c | 378.9$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.15 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 52c | 378$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 67c | 354$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.18 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 52c | 333$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 276.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 55c | 229.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 48c | 183.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 181.76$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 149.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 77c | 142.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…bf53backed Under | 62c | 129.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 52c | 125.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Over | 43c | 115.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 65c | 114.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 39c | 107$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 104.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 60c | 89.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 42c | 87.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 83.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 52c | 70.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 67.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 51c | 63.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 58c | 45.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32d…d18fbacked Over | 31c | 45.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 38cpaid | -90%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Over | 52c | 42.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 39c | 41.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Under | 41c | 38.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 39c | 36.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 43c | 33.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 62c | 33.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 73c | 32.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 39c | 30.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Over | 46c | 27.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 67c | 20.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Under | 55c | 18.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Under | 69c | 18.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.