MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeae8a66c67a9c174a107758a554fb00a22496004815558f14dffd6df7f986260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 42c | 198,588$83,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114,598.16 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 57c | 140,000$80,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,300 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 59c | 25,680$15,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,077.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 58c | 15,000$8,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,700 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 4,318$2,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590.57 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 3,926$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 57c | 1,886$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,814$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 1,534$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.69 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.01 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 59c | 1,260$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 59c | 1,118$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.67 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 990.71$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 58c | 909.71$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 58c | 905$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.9 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 825$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 764.48$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 59c | 500.39$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.23 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 446.68$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 45c | 377.78$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.78 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 40c | 343$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 59c | 340.52$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 69c | 209.55$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 193.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 26c | 174.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 25c | 159.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f8…d675backed Under | 66c | 151.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 58c | 140$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 127.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…04f5backed Under | 60c | 122.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 72c | 111.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 58c | 102.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 93.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 42c | 76.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 74c | 72.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad2…d942backed Over | 59c | 71.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 71.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…4cf8backed Over | 26c | 69.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 65c | 67.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 39c | 62.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 40c | 55.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…7bf6backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f3…63c3backed Under | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 57c | 39.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Under | 42c | 35.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…f631backed Under | 43c | 34.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Under | 42c | 29.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 34c | 29.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6023…7141backed Over | 60c | 26.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Over | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Under | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.