Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf624f4ec156cdd4cf322d88a9440dd4a9918dd640214738f7ac7bfb3c61b952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 26c | 910.53$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.42 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 8c | 839.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 651.51$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.64 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 566.06$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 506.89$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 9c | 398.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 355.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.82 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 248$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 232.28$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 9c | 226.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.28 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 31c | 210$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 57c | 180.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 175$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 16c | 165.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 35c | 155.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 153.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 68c | 152.4$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 78c | 151.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.41 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 145.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 69c | 136.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 126$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 43c | 117.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 69c | 111.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 35c | 105.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 29c | 96.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 95.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 94.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 88.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8f…4d8abacked Yes | 18c | 84.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 70c | 80.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 16c | 77.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked Yes | 14c | 77.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 75.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 73.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 74c | 67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 63.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 71c | 61.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 58.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 35c | 56.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 53c | 55.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 54.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 51.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 48.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 54c | 48.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 70c | 47.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 78c | 46.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 45.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…886ebacked No | 69c | 43.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 49c | 40.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 40.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 32c | 40.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 38.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 34.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 73c | 31.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 31.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 30.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…8bb0backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 28.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 67c | 28.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 27.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 25.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.