TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs 3DMAX (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group C

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Walczakiof Walczaki, 3DMAX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$167,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$207,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,351 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Walczaki57c21,916$12,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,467.3363157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 3DMAX37c7,791$2,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.212,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Walczaki55c6,500$3,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,924.9866851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Walczaki35c5,666$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,683.1220354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed 3DMAX60c5,186$3,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,088.6421953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0478…37c3backed 3DMAX65c4,779$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.929952.5%52 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked 3DMAX59c4,767$2,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,791.0892456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Walczaki62c3,566$2,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.296036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Walczaki33c3,291$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205.0184958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked 3DMAX67c3,010$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.436453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked 3DMAX45c2,500$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.923,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Walczaki31c2,250$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.51,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Walczaki66c2,092$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.151942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed 3DMAX30c2,058$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.9736446.7%170 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 3DMAX34c2,007$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.641,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 3DMAX45c1,983$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.515,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4f…b37bbacked 3DMAX65c1,633$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-40.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Walczaki53c1,555$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.0961034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed 3DMAX65c1,542$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed 3DMAX42c1,497$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.714362.9%90 W · 53 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed 3DMAX61c1,481$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.417754.5%42 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Walczaki37c1,455$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.51,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked 3DMAX51c1,441$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7351,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Walczaki35c1,429$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.5719357%110 W · 83 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed Walczaki36c1,419$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.8869732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fca…6ac3backed 3DMAX36c1,385$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.084643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed 3DMAX29c1,375$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.7537440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb000…5ca6backed 3DMAX38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007342.5%31 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked 3DMAX43c1,247$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.093,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed 3DMAX65c1,238$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Walczaki37c1,201$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.2875652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed 3DMAX38c1,160$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.815648.1%75 W · 81 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked 3DMAX71c1,134$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80014659.6%87 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked 3DMAX37c1,095$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003834.2%13 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31cb…a34bbacked 3DMAX64c1,079$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Walczaki54c1,078$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.045,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b6d…2f1abacked 3DMAX29c1,041$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked 3DMAX31c998.89$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.89445.7%43 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Walczaki74c923.12$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.192,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Walczaki54c911.65$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.277,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked 3DMAX66c869$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.749536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Walczaki56c864.72$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.3454732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked 3DMAX31c863.12$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.851,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7437…142dbacked 3DMAX46c838.7$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.511735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Walczaki69c803.81$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.942,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked Walczaki65c800$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.366251.6%32 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed 3DMAX68c733.9$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50026360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked 3DMAX31c729.36$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.672,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcce…c920backed 3DMAX55c684.37$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37817361.3%106 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 3DMAX38c679.89$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.085,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Walczaki37c678$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.1455845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Walczaki46c673.53$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.5610153.5%54 W · 47 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Walczaki33c646.12$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43396545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked 3DMAX42c644.46$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.122,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c3a…eb16backed 3DMAX21c599.82$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.423528.6%10 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3e…7d88backed 3DMAX48c574.3$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.074645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed 3DMAX26c559$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.742,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed 3DMAX45c555.56$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Walczaki62c549.65$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.684,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed 3DMAX48c500.84$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.852,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Walczaki36c499.99$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.9985851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed 3DMAX31c499.99$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4210148.5%49 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Walczaki33c499.98$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.9937145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed Walczaki35c499.78$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.8647054%254 W · 216 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bb6…5154backed 3DMAX40c495.13$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Walczaki35c489.29$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.0714545.5%66 W · 79 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5b6…eec6backed Walczaki65c471.9$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.92152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Walczaki77c467.88$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9323861.3%146 W · 92 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed 3DMAX50c443.96$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22013147.3%62 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed 3DMAX68c441.18$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed Walczaki32c432.53$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.0243933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed 3DMAX65c432.25$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.9648240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed 3DMAX65c420$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2739159.3%54 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked Walczaki35c419.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.979837.8%37 W · 61 L-9.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked 3DMAX50c413.43$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4275833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf369…8283backed 3DMAX24c411.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008446.4%39 W · 45 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde24…2b2fbacked 3DMAX48c409.81$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.437537.3%28 W · 47 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed 3DMAX54c403.2$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2569445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked 3DMAX63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25235744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Walczaki33c399.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.9955941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6421…045dbacked 3DMAX61c396.33$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24116248.1%78 W · 84 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Walczaki33c395.55$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0520045%90 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Walczaki60c390.13$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.056144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8400…274cbacked Walczaki71c383.03$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.535658.9%33 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked 3DMAX45c381.24$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1410438.5%40 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed 3DMAX37c380$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.64742.6%20 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed 3DMAX66c373.01$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.121,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7787…bf58backed Walczaki55c363.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.923542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked 3DMAX40c356.92$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.491,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed Walczaki58c352.46$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.036942%29 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed 3DMAX35c329.96$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5913142.7%56 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed 3DMAX65c320$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20838052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked 3DMAX64c312.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013351.1%68 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed 3DMAX60c312.01$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.0620046%92 W · 108 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Walczaki56c310$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.911,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Walczaki49c304$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.642,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Walczaki32c299.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.9999148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdac7…a2bcbacked 3DMAX68c294.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked 3DMAX32c291.33$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.843,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a15…0350backed Walczaki65c285.58$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.753265.6%21 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.