TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shanghai Sharksof Shanghai Sharks, Zhejiang Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$211,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7120…7c4ebacked Zhejiang Lions44c14,263$6,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,287.116116.4%10 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shanghai Sharks62c7,774$4,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,970.7713545.9%62 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e0c…994dbacked Zhejiang Lions41c7,505$3,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,070.8220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Shanghai Sharks66c7,273$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,473.455360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x278f…ef30backed Zhejiang Lions42c6,518$2,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,764.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Shanghai Sharks35c4,321$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,820.733735.1%13 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Shanghai Sharks52c3,933$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.093745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Zhejiang Lions40c3,767$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.6724430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2398…8894backed Shanghai Sharks54c3,254$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.914100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+78.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked Shanghai Sharks51c3,195$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.233063.3%19 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Shanghai Sharks62c2,971$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.161643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Zhejiang Lions33c2,906$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.051637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Shanghai Sharks58c2,806$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Zhejiang Lions2c2,454$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Shanghai Sharks57c2,427$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.172157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a3…8652backed Zhejiang Lions46c2,195$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Zhejiang Lions44c2,170$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.034443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Zhejiang Lions33c2,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Shanghai Sharks68c1,751$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.515844.8%26 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Shanghai Sharks53c1,681$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.485648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Shanghai Sharks54c1,651$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.059551.6%49 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf70b…5166backed Zhejiang Lions67c1,502$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-9.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Zhejiang Lions1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Zhejiang Lions43c1,386$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.186346%29 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc97b…879dbacked Shanghai Sharks67c1,362$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked Zhejiang Lions41c1,357$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Shanghai Sharks54c1,336$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.157042.9%30 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Zhejiang Lions42c1,300$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.991030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Shanghai Sharks66c1,283$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7973…34d4backed Zhejiang Lions44c1,205$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Shanghai Sharks71c1,077$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.425248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Shanghai Sharks33c1,050$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.9810634.9%37 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75c…b6d3backed Shanghai Sharks65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c27…97c2backed Shanghai Sharks66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Shanghai Sharks54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5f…ddf0backed Zhejiang Lions44c999.96$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5e…c0fabacked Zhejiang Lions42c962.95$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.291546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed Shanghai Sharks66c942.17$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Zhejiang Lions34c937.93$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.614557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26d8…0175backed Zhejiang Lions1c900$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Shanghai Sharks67c896.3$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.34562.2%28 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Shanghai Sharks45c890.78$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.416844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Shanghai Sharks55c890.51$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Shanghai Sharks41c884.55$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.546144.3%27 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Shanghai Sharks59c851.24$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Zhejiang Lions40c835.14$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.7826935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7c1…92adbacked Shanghai Sharks63c800$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.245100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+68%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Zhejiang Lions54c776.07$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.361258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Shanghai Sharks37c776$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Shanghai Sharks55c753.84$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.757138%27 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Shanghai Sharks71c705.1$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed Shanghai Sharks72c701.28$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.161346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c07…4529backed Zhejiang Lions42c700$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f3…3bbebacked Zhejiang Lions45c700$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e5…1809backed Zhejiang Lions47c666$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.74540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Shanghai Sharks57c610.33$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.783933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Shanghai Sharks54c584.98$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.692737%10 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c7…f276backed Shanghai Sharks59c579.59$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae6d…468dbacked Zhejiang Lions35c570.13$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5ea8…25f9backed Zhejiang Lions39c556.33$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked Shanghai Sharks66c550$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1872100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+137%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19c6…c063backed Shanghai Sharks56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Zhejiang Lions41c520$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.21656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Zhejiang Lions42c506.98$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Shanghai Sharks65c501.64$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.854344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3499…60b5backed Shanghai Sharks66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c1…0ddfbacked Shanghai Sharks66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Shanghai Sharks66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2db…a60dbacked Zhejiang Lions32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe84a…02febacked Shanghai Sharks66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1362…f403backed Shanghai Sharks66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdef7…d8a0backed Shanghai Sharks66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Zhejiang Lions42c488.16$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.635234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Zhejiang Lions42c485.28$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.981464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Shanghai Sharks59c473.12$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.126642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c0…e88fbacked Shanghai Sharks59c469.58$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09f4…5c6abacked Zhejiang Lions48c454.53$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.37633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce0…2b8abacked Shanghai Sharks59c450$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1838256.1%46 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e52…40febacked Shanghai Sharks49c411.22$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xceca…4800backed Shanghai Sharks66c403.71$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.261241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…9a2bbacked Zhejiang Lions47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec60…8ad8backed Shanghai Sharks49c399.99$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5247…ece7backed Zhejiang Lions34c394.13$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Shanghai Sharks54c387.57$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.6534344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Zhejiang Lions37c378.66$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.184551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Zhejiang Lions4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d8…c70fbacked Shanghai Sharks66c374.89$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…3b4dbacked Zhejiang Lions37c371$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Shanghai Sharks58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f7a…0f82backed Zhejiang Lions31c340$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.41040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…3300backed Shanghai Sharks59c339.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.92683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Shanghai Sharks59c337.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.993060%18 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Shanghai Sharks69c331.23$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.162142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed Shanghai Sharks53c327.92$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad5…c7bebacked Shanghai Sharks55c327.19$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+142.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Shanghai Sharks66c319.05$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.481553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+26.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Zhejiang Lions35c317.89$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.496450%32 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Zhejiang Lions47c314.3$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Shanghai Sharks57c314$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.846061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb002…103dbacked Zhejiang Lions43c299.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.