La Liga · resolved market
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0394c2c7c84d068b4cabc35c8638ef53a654f2613de5527e84289e39056b255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb29…947abacked No | 35c | 1,871$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd458…b521backed No | 36c | 1,806$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…dfa2backed Yes | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.98 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a2…6883backed Yes | 64c | 1,042$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 62c | 899.64$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…e48ebacked No | 34c | 818.56$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…fd7fbacked No | 35c | 705.07$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d4…7345backed No | 38c | 499.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c73…cd83backed No | 38c | 401.35$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 62c | 392.45$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 62c | 325.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.18 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 151 | 62.3%94 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 310.27$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 448 | 40.4%181 W · 267 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 37c | 221.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…3a29backed Yes | 64c | 213.84$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 40c | 174.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…01c1backed Yes | 68c | 168$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Yes | 63c | 164.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…261ebacked Yes | 65c | 156.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…358bbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Yes | 62c | 148.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 38c | 129.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5329backed Yes | 62c | 112.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…be99backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…ed34backed Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…6d2dbacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…f767backed Yes | 63c | 69.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd32b…404ebacked No | 37c | 69.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 38c | 64.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 35c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 849 | 39.7%337 W · 512 L | -21.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065a…4147backed Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…c701backed Yes | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…5e18backed No | 37c | 52.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…3356backed No | 38c | 50.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2773…d703backed Yes | 60c | 42.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 40.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…db7abacked Yes | 66c | 40.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Yes | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…7483backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…96babacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…fec3backed Yes | 63c | 30.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…2f8dbacked Yes | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ec…df58backed Yes | 62c | 28.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…3aecbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34f…1cfabacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Yes | 64c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 62c | 21.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…f04cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Jude Bellingham: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Vinicius Junior: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.