Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe04270005123fb77b9342c6cf529e06de47b12f1d7f23b4143133ab9227ccf27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 442$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 37c | 370.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.95 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 65c | 298.15$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 267.01$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f9…1ee3backed Yes | 17c | 261.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.22 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 33c | 256.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.01 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 71c | 236.91$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.21 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 207.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 52c | 192.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 181$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 165$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 139.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 130.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 118.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 66c | 116.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 70c | 115.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 101.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 24c | 96.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 44c | 94.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 44c | 83.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 15c | 81.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 80.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 57c | 76.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 74.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 74.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 71.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 65.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed Yes | 30c | 63.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 29c | 62.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 37c | 59.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 59.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 34c | 59.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 62c | 55.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 55c | 53.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 50.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 50.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 30c | 44.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…a3c0backed Yes | 46c | 43.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 60c | 42.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 36.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 71c | 35.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 29c | 35.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 32.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 31.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 31.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 34c | 31.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 42c | 30.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 69c | 27.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 27.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 27.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 71c | 24.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 23.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee5…ec3dbacked No | 65c | 22.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 57c | 22.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 65c | 20.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc082…4c5fbacked No | 58c | 20.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 18.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 67c | 16.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f60…50b1backed No | 73c | 15.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.