Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x104454000d9d366cf6c85f0d32cfac6df57ef1e7cc49a7fecd41613dede4ec9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 76c | 1,776$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.8 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 62c | 670.11$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.13 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 484.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 442$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 431.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 71c | 400.36$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.27 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 348.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 35c | 298.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 226.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 49c | 214$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 173.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 58c | 162.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 156.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 152.21$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 24c | 147.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 145.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 41c | 141.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 124.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 123.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 56c | 120.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 44c | 112.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 108.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 49c | 107.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 102.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 49c | 93.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 27c | 92.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 61c | 91.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 36c | 89.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 87.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 40c | 83.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 52c | 81.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 42c | 77.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 46c | 76.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 46c | 73.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 71.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 46c | 71.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 71c | 60.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 38c | 60.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 44c | 60.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 51c | 59.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 48c | 58.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 57.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 56.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 37c | 50.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 50.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 30c | 50.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…f7e6backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641c…b22fbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 44.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 47c | 43.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 50c | 43.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 42c | 41.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 42c | 39.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 39.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 31c | 38.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 36.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 73c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d0…fad2backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 34.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…a3c0backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 30.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 75c | 29.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 46c | 29.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 28.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 50c | 28.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 27.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 23.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 63c | 22.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.