NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe27cf74fc97cd125a488c985b25d5098da6e1fe62e4a6b9cd40828cd3a3463d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Cavaliers, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 4c | 10,692$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 4,490$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.55 | 285 | 54%154 W · 131 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Jazz | 55c | 3,409$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.87 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Jazz | 56c | 2,984$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.59 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…a0d8backed Cavaliers | 45c | 2,217$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.46 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…c0abbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 2,168$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.56 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Jazz | 59c | 2,062$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.14 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Jazz | 56c | 1,084$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.84 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 43c | 900.24$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.43 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Jazz | 55c | 816.12$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.87 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Cavaliers | 38c | 716.54$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.64 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz | 55c | 533.39$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.8 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 426.78$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.16 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Jazz | 53c | 395.17$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.87 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cavaliers | 44c | 393.05$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Jazz | 56c | 351.72$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8c…35b0backed Jazz | 61c | 323.59$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.45 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed Cavaliers | 49c | 308.73$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.28 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Jazz | 57c | 197.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…a940backed Jazz | 53c | 185.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Jazz | 55c | 179.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Jazz | 55c | 160.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Jazz | 56c | 135.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers | 45c | 134.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…1013backed Cavaliers | 47c | 124.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Jazz | 53c | 95.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Jazz | 56c | 88.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cavaliers | 49c | 88.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Cavaliers | 45c | 81.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Cavaliers | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jazz | 51c | 77.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Cavaliers | 42c | 77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Jazz | 55c | 76.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers | 51c | 74.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Jazz | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Jazz | 51c | 61.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Cavaliers | 45c | 54.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…b3dbbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 54.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Cavaliers | 20c | 51.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Jazz | 56c | 51.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…f1c6backed Cavaliers | 45c | 50.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -7.2wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…59e1backed Jazz | 56c | 42.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Jazz | 56c | 37.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked Jazz | 55c | 35.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda9…4e88backed Jazz | 56c | 35.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Cavaliers | 44c | 34.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 33.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…7ef7backed Jazz | 54c | 31.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Cavaliers | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 313 | 45.7%143 W · 170 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9add…d1d5backed Jazz | 55c | 28.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Jazz | 56c | 26.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…c2b6backed Cavaliers | 44c | 23.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked Jazz | 59c | 21.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Jazz | 50c | 20.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed Jazz | 56c | 19.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. JazzCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Under won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.