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Tennis · resolved market

Little Rock: Andres Martin vs Yuta Shimizu

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yuta Shimizuof Andres Martin, Yuta Shimizu
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,144 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4d2…ce99backed Andres Martin42c3,942$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.495,03138.5%1,939 W · 3,092 L-20.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Andres Martin28c3,415$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.229,26736.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L-199.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yuta Shimizu55c2,578$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.383,75245.3%1,700 W · 2,052 L-2.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Andres Martin14c1,934$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.421028.8%9 W · 93 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Yuta Shimizu58c1,832$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.5285348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Yuta Shimizu58c1,832$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.4865952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b62…5cc8backed Andres Martin38c1,500$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.753438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Andres Martin40c1,494$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.6511,87743.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L+19.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Andres Martin43c1,492$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.74,52351.7%2,340 W · 2,183 L+135.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Andres Martin28c1,337$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38030225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Yuta Shimizu68c1,306$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.575,48656.3%3,088 W · 2,398 L+232.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Andres Martin53c1,105$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.8314835.8%53 W · 95 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Yuta Shimizu47c1,039$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.11,89544.9%851 W · 1,044 L+38.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Andres Martin53c970.97$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.8857842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked Yuta Shimizu52c965.15$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.29458.5%55 W · 39 L+11.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+19.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Andres Martin20c914.28$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.296823.5%16 W · 52 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yuta Shimizu80c897.63$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.368,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yuta Shimizu60c685.9$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.714,64767.7%3,147 W · 1,500 L+308.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Yuta Shimizu57c656.25$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.882,11144.6%941 W · 1,170 L-51.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Andres Martin12c646.81$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.45,07541.5%2,104 W · 2,971 L-83.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Yuta Shimizu65c626.3$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.3534253.8%184 W · 158 L+21.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Andres Martin54c624.33$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.2950958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yuta Shimizu61c608.58$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.328,92142.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L-169.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…f419backed Andres Martin58c545.96$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3161457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Andres Martin43c527.44$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.274,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Yuta Shimizu57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.321,75050.2%878 W · 872 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Yuta Shimizu47c499.82$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.279,44444.3%4,188 W · 5,256 L-249.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Andres Martin50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,87248.2%902 W · 970 L-36.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Andres Martin18c326.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6032935%115 W · 214 L-1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yuta Shimizu45c318.83$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.363,39748.6%1,652 W · 1,745 L-47.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Andres Martin34c286$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.451,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70d8…4129backed Yuta Shimizu76c219.97$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.791631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde0f…ddd3backed Andres Martin46c216$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5610437.5%39 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa2…2b5dbacked Andres Martin36c202.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.25616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb002…103dbacked Yuta Shimizu47c199.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10636852.7%194 W · 174 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x400d…e759backed Andres Martin55c199.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11060856.6%344 W · 264 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Andres Martin55c196.43$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.041,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed Andres Martin52c177.89$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.222941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476e…cfb9backed Andres Martin57c157$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4935060.9%213 W · 137 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Andres Martin12c156.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.822,92539.6%1,158 W · 1,767 L-85.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc314…6a46backed Andres Martin13c152.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7818410.9%20 W · 164 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc45a…1565backed Yuta Shimizu70c149.63$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.567045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e02…b178backed Andres Martin28c142.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.463349.6%32 W · 302 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Andres Martin43c137.77$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.426,70050.8%3,401 W · 3,299 L+267.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Andres Martin41c122.24$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.722,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Andres Martin42c110.11$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.713,77642.6%1,608 W · 2,168 L-44.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Yuta Shimizu46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.759440.2%239 W · 355 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Yuta Shimizu58c106.32$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.651,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked Yuta Shimizu76c105$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.222540.4%91 W · 134 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Andres Martin50c100.4$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.531,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Andres Martin10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1095742.1%403 W · 554 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Yuta Shimizu53c99.98$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9992138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf40e…9addbacked Andres Martin56c90.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040763.9%260 W · 147 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Yuta Shimizu67c89.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.551,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yuta Shimizu62c81.44$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5793248.7%454 W · 478 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yuta Shimizu66c80.96$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.86,89848.9%3,374 W · 3,524 L+61.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2e…b55cbacked Yuta Shimizu56c80.01$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.369245.7%42 W · 50 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Yuta Shimizu78c80$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x175e…8e46backed Yuta Shimizu49c73$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2310363.1%65 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Yuta Shimizu76c68$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.141,10948%532 W · 577 L+41.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Yuta Shimizu65c66.7$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.551,01239.1%396 W · 616 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Yuta Shimizu47c64.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.432,45151.7%1,268 W · 1,183 L+11.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Andres Martin37c63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.371,17952.8%623 W · 556 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Yuta Shimizu49c61.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4627437.2%102 W · 172 L-21.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Andres Martin33c61.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9133352.6%175 W · 158 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Andres Martin41c59.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.061,90357.5%1,094 W · 809 L+107.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Yuta Shimizu45c55.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.832462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Yuta Shimizu38c54.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0236757.8%212 W · 155 L+26.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Andres Martin55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Andres Martin43c54.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.391755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Yuta Shimizu57c53.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.672,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed0d…3646backed Yuta Shimizu60c52.87$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1515454.5%84 W · 70 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yuta Shimizu44c52.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.453,90535%1,368 W · 2,537 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x831d…0705backed Yuta Shimizu74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1326563.8%169 W · 96 L-12.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yuta Shimizu46c49.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.418,12750.8%4,126 W · 4,001 L+84.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Andres Martin53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2566452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b85…b31bbacked Yuta Shimizu64c46.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6211541.7%48 W · 67 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed Yuta Shimizu70c44.53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5456070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4def…06e6backed Yuta Shimizu43c43.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.15117.6%9 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Andres Martin47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,17937%807 W · 1,372 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ec…3630backed Andres Martin42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9813232.6%43 W · 89 L-14.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Andres Martin30c39.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.935,60048.5%2,717 W · 2,883 L+10.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Yuta Shimizu58c37.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9460446.7%282 W · 322 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yuta Shimizu80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1535187.7%308 W · 43 L+66.4wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Andres Martin43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559050.5%298 W · 292 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Andres Martin48c32.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7460441.2%249 W · 355 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Yuta Shimizu47c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72,16456.1%1,214 W · 950 L+42.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Yuta Shimizu54c27.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.616,58454.4%3,584 W · 3,000 L+286.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yuta Shimizu44c26.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.122,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcb…95afbacked Yuta Shimizu77c25.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.91136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Andres Martin47c23.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.192,11154.2%1,145 W · 966 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Andres Martin52c22.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed Yuta Shimizu61c22.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6819474.7%145 W · 49 L+34.2wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yuta Shimizu56c21.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.491,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33e…b4b6backed Yuta Shimizu53c21.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9818545.4%84 W · 101 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed Andres Martin52c20.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7527664.1%177 W · 99 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbafb…3031backed Yuta Shimizu77c20.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5733673.2%246 W · 90 L-15.2wins-0.05per pick78cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc56b…772abacked Andres Martin52c19.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.097744.2%34 W · 43 L-13.4wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-26%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe510…3535backed Yuta Shimizu77c16.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8411473.7%84 W · 30 L-0.5wins0.00per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.