MLB · resolved market

Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2f29c6e1f9a5f29ba514576b55154cbc701ee9ddb3265e515b230bf86d39460

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: New York Yankeesof Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees
Resolved: Jun 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $66,846
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,050

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,846 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees	53c	19,716$10,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,243.79	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Boston Red Sox	35c	7,220$2,518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,518.16	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked Boston Red Sox	69c	6,375$4,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,374.8	149	43.6%65 W · 84 L	-17.3wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees	47c	5,688$2,653 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,034.81	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees	48c	5,626$2,705 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,921.68	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed Boston Red Sox	68c	5,202$3,538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,537.64	232	55.6%129 W · 103 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox	31c	3,451$1,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,069.85	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Boston Red Sox	67c	3,040$2,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,036.84	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-8.9wins	-0.23per pick	60cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox	32c	2,646$839 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$839.11	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Boston Red Sox	40c	1,910$759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.41	794	42.4%337 W · 457 L	-13.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Boston Red Sox	35c	1,714$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	175	46.9%82 W · 93 L	-9.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa5d…7e90backed Boston Red Sox	35c	1,684$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$589.15	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d06…755bbacked Boston Red Sox	56c	1,470$823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$823.15	89	61.8%55 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees	65c	1,207$786 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.1	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Yankees	65c	1,000$650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees	66c	712.98$471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.41	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed New York Yankees	66c	537.64$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.8	568	51.4%292 W · 276 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Boston Red Sox	61c	527.46$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.68	2,021	39.5%798 W · 1,223 L	-25.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees	66c	507.8$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.06	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc908…2f61backed Boston Red Sox	60c	417.08$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	121	54.5%66 W · 55 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Yankees	66c	363.66$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.87	2,290	51%1,167 W · 1,123 L	+23.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Boston Red Sox	35c	350$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.74	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Boston Red Sox	35c	342.86$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	267	47.9%128 W · 139 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees	65c	299$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.65	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed New York Yankees	66c	295.14$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.39	1,607	53.2%855 W · 752 L	+74.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d1c…8408backed Boston Red Sox	62c	274.07$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Boston Red Sox	55c	259.09$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.5	518	49.4%256 W · 262 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked New York Yankees	67c	249.63$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.88	181	57.5%104 W · 77 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c7…2699backed Boston Red Sox	34c	209.63$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Yankees	65c	202.18$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.78	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees	67c	190.24$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.78	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed New York Yankees	28c	165$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119	544	41.2%224 W · 320 L	-22.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f03…9372backed Boston Red Sox	35c	146.23$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.98	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+4.5wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Boston Red Sox	36c	122.5$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	564	40.4%228 W · 336 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees	47c	117.27$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.93	2,147	50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L	+27.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees	67c	111.34$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.81	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked Boston Red Sox	34c	108.82$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x332f…80a4backed New York Yankees	37c	85.68$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.9	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed New York Yankees	63c	79.05$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	1,218	55.6%677 W · 541 L	+94.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox	72c	70.08$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.56	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Yankees	73c	62.95$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	3,457	51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L	+108.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Yankees	65c	57.92$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.27	859	49.1%422 W · 437 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Yankees	57c	53.96$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.06	1,014	50.4%511 W · 503 L	+52.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc93d…23d5backed New York Yankees	48c	53.56$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.89	197	56.9%112 W · 85 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Boston Red Sox	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1,172	49.1%575 W · 597 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed New York Yankees	38c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-4.6wins	-0.20per pick	55cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox	35c	48.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.85	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed New York Yankees	38c	48$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.76	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Boston Red Sox	58c	47$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.26	920	46%423 W · 497 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Boston Red Sox	59c	44$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.96	267	51.7%138 W · 129 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Boston Red Sox	59c	43.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.42	459	52.9%243 W · 216 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees	58c	41$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	1,879	40.6%763 W · 1,116 L	-39.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Yankees	40c	40$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	1,147	31.6%362 W · 785 L	-97.5wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed New York Yankees	43c	35.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.47	1,777	58.4%1,037 W · 740 L	+91.8wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa96b…7d92backed New York Yankees	41c	35.7$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.96	190	41.1%78 W · 112 L	-10.2wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Yankees	53c	32$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.04	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Boston Red Sox	33c	32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	392	50.3%197 W · 195 L	+18.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed New York Yankees	51c	30.01$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.79	244	48.8%119 W · 125 L	-14.9wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Yankees	52c	29.7$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.15	4,169	50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L	+92.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b48…1d20backed New York Yankees	41c	26.5$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.63	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55c8…b64bbacked New York Yankees	46c	26.27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.27	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+55.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed New York Yankees	66c	24.44$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.31	528	52.1%275 W · 253 L	+13.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked New York Yankees	66c	24.24$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.24	674	44.1%297 W · 377 L	+27.8wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed New York Yankees	55c	23.65$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.7	509	54%275 W · 234 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Boston Red Sox	61c	22.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	228	67.1%153 W · 75 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Red Sox	57c	18.31$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2638…8e2dbacked New York Yankees	66c	15.62$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.31	132	52.3%69 W · 63 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed New York Yankees	66c	15.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.27	1,464	63.5%929 W · 535 L	-10.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 2.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 3.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event