TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sentinelsof 100 Thieves, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Sentinels33c15,259$5,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,175.9628955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked 100 Thieves67c13,000$8,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,649.9678162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked 100 Thieves64c9,971$6,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,393.9213651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked 100 Thieves40c9,772$3,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,897.5450944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Sentinels56c9,370$5,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,131.2852155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3491…5909backed 100 Thieves66c7,527$4,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,984.521650%8 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked 100 Thieves56c5,997$3,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,370.5733153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Sentinels37c5,182$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,273.372653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+41.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked 100 Thieves29c5,148$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.0768949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Sentinels34c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.963650%18 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked 100 Thieves52c4,056$2,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,122.971323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked 100 Thieves40c3,512$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.7777744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed Sentinels36c3,200$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.9813345.9%61 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed 100 Thieves49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4703745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Sentinels36c2,282$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.454751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Sentinels63c2,213$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.7294361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked 100 Thieves57c2,082$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.2213759.9%82 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked 100 Thieves47c2,013$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.245033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Sentinels34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32016952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Sentinels52c1,956$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.831153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4cd…a898backed Sentinels35c1,840$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.761233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed 100 Thieves56c1,695$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.8116345.4%74 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Sentinels36c1,680$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.224946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed 100 Thieves66c1,484$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.63154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Sentinels34c1,480$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.3213642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked Sentinels62c1,453$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.846137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Sentinels34c1,441$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.811255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed 100 Thieves63c1,400$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88432047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Sentinels62c1,258$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.2868458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed 100 Thieves51c1,217$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.0822047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Sentinels56c1,212$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.793148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed 100 Thieves41c1,164$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.7632462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3722…1f0abacked 100 Thieves66c1,156$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Sentinels34c1,130$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.724641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Sentinels35c1,105$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.356737.3%25 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed 100 Thieves65c1,087$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.0562156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Sentinels66c1,082$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.896445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed 100 Thieves58c1,039$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.9341537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Sentinels47c1,034$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.9670251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Sentinels36c1,030$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.4423447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d3…e454backed Sentinels34c999.96$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.975263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed Sentinels61c974.67$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.044755.3%26 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed 100 Thieves52c971.2$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.0228541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed 100 Thieves51c970.6$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0190%0 W · 9 L-4.2wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Sentinels35c961$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.652147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed 100 Thieves62c960$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.432152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed 100 Thieves49c888.8$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.8911258%65 W · 47 L+12.8wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked 100 Thieves42c866.02$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.1965559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed 100 Thieves42c864.19$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.642540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed 100 Thieves46c842.5$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.9517448.3%84 W · 90 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Sentinels34c823$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.187655.3%42 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Sentinels34c800$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5281154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed 100 Thieves53c771.62$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.4828541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked 100 Thieves62c763.42$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.3214152.5%74 W · 67 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Sentinels35c763.08$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.4524846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb29a…bbdebacked 100 Thieves37c754.26$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.54055%22 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Sentinels46c749.43$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.456336.5%23 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 100 Thieves40c737.11$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.281,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked 100 Thieves66c726.86$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.7310455.8%58 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed 100 Thieves39c713.94$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.2326634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Sentinels47c708.26$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.0615342.5%65 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked 100 Thieves41c649.25$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0914533.8%49 W · 96 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Sentinels35c643.33$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.483060%18 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Sentinels33c639.87$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.7129733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked 100 Thieves44c638.96$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.024245.2%19 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed 100 Thieves30c604$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0521558.1%125 W · 90 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Sentinels62c590.68$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.2553159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed 100 Thieves47c574.37$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.4329151.5%150 W · 141 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa903…bcd2backed Sentinels34c564.94$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.862263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Sentinels43c564.65$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.2423151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d1e…8f0cbacked Sentinels58c561.27$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked 100 Thieves44c539.29$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.221048.1%101 W · 109 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Sentinels35c539.12$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.4315942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed 100 Thieves35c521.69$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5954342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4da5…e32ebacked Sentinels37c520.11$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.675957.6%34 W · 25 L+10.9wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+54.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed 100 Thieves56c511.74$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Sentinels46c505.55$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.348038.8%31 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Sentinels38c502.19$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.5819847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Sentinels34c500$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33036648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa621…6e29backed 100 Thieves63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Sentinels38c499.16$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.485162.7%32 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed 100 Thieves33c494.44$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1718735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 100 Thieves50c493.77$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.161,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked 100 Thieves33c490$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.021,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2814…2941backed Sentinels33c446.46$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed 100 Thieves66c409.1$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.569443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c72…78edbacked Sentinels37c390.08$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed 100 Thieves63c383.11$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.362441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x877e…8c95backed Sentinels52c376.49$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.749142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Sentinels72c371.43$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9935142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed Sentinels36c353.5$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.45250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Sentinels35c345.96$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.8723847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf66…b444backed 100 Thieves63c345.2$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.471855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc400…21a7backed Sentinels64c336.27$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.033545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed 100 Thieves66c332.62$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.537342.5%31 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2655…eaa4backed 100 Thieves64c327.15$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.387930.4%24 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked 100 Thieves48c327$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.119238%35 W · 57 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked 100 Thieves40c324.24$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8815833.5%53 W · 105 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Sentinels46c323.07$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.0425336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Sentinels62c313.67$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4534739.8%138 W · 209 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.