NBA · resolved market
Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3fc640c214ee0fe38beaa1763f0e7f5d64d4301c30955959cdfca599ed374c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,910 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 75c | 706.67$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.52 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 70c | 680.67$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.47 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1e…0673backed Yes | 35c | 623.52$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.62 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 65c | 617.81$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.97 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 62c | 401.07$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.81 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…f839backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes | 26c | 382.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.09 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675d…c10cbacked Yes | 30c | 333.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…ca25backed No | 70c | 325$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…1fbcbacked Yes | 30c | 317$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…d5a8backed Yes | 30c | 310$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 72c | 252$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…cddabacked Yes | 35c | 219.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…d0cfbacked Yes | 22c | 213.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.39 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…3792backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…f320backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77eb…66edbacked Yes | 27c | 88.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 78c | 75.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…3affbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 141 | 70.9%100 W · 41 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 72c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…fda3backed Yes | 23c | 69.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…4176backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 76c | 60.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…08d6backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ea…4847backed Yes | 26c | 43.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 75c | 40.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 42c | 35.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…8498backed No | 67c | 25.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 66c | 24.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 92 | 67.4%62 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 16.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5this page
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Bennedict Mathurin: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Darius Garland: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Darius Garland: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kris Dunn: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Pacers vs. ClippersClippers won
- Pacers vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Pacers vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Clippers (-11.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-12.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-13.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.