TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,533

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,533 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No72c672.31$487 inWon+$185.311,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No67c615.64$410 inWon+$205.5990863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f1e…0673backed Yes33c506.14$166 inLost-$165.832927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f2…8357backed Yes27c365.94$100 inLost-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf4…d0cfbacked Yes28c213.43$60 inLost-$59.761478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No70c183$129 inWon+$54.014,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No74c172$127 inWon+$44.7226638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Yes34c167.89$57 inLost-$5713138.2%50 W · 81 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ef7…2ed1backed Yes26c154.13$40 inLost-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d60…5c77backed Yes41c142.76$59 inLost-$58.531735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No59c128.88$76 inWon+$52.8445657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No68c100$68 inWon+$32.2595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6138…eac5backed Yes27c91.85$25 inLost-$252133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No70c90$63 inWon+$27.165762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No73c67.58$49 inWon+$18.2292058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No74c43.67$33 inWon+$11.1583158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed No67c36.14$24 inWon+$11.939267.4%62 W · 30 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58d4…77c3backed Yes31c32.13$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f1…d867backed No68c17.32$12 inWon+$5.624045%18 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No71c15.53$11 inWon+$4.5419555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.