Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe487b88f158defee45003580d9d8d7e13f2fa879fa61d8e7af2068eb95807e76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 79c | 2,554$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.34 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.29 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 935.59$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 499.61$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 56c | 372$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.16 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 29c | 343.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 301.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…c655backed No | 77c | 264.93$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 66c | 235.39$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.21 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 22c | 228.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 41c | 224.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 48c | 223.11$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 219.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 61c | 197$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 77c | 195.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 180$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 40c | 177.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 36c | 170$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 38c | 169.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 156.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 34c | 154.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 152$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 54c | 143.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 142.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 141.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 61c | 140.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…706cbacked Yes | 34c | 140.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 45c | 133.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 48c | 116.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 64c | 110$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 54c | 105.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 104.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 50c | 100.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 65c | 96.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 21c | 88.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 88.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 82.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 26c | 81.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 25c | 81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 65c | 76.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 49c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…a606backed No | 59c | 72.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 52c | 69.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…44dabacked Yes | 39c | 68.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 60c | 68.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 25c | 66.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 66.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…d3a4backed No | 70c | 64.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 72c | 62.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…fc4cbacked Yes | 62c | 61.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 61c | 61.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 29c | 60.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 36c | 59.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 42c | 58.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 57.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 57.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…a5b0backed Yes | 30c | 54.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 39c | 53.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…e94bbacked No | 42c | 51.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…7a38backed Yes | 43c | 51.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…b858backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 45c | 47.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 60c | 47.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 45c | 45.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 44.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 66c | 43.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…c47cbacked Yes | 64c | 40.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 59c | 40.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb386…ba93backed No | 49c | 38.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 76c | 38.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 36c | 37.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 34c | 34.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 42c | 32.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…33cfbacked Yes | 53c | 32.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 36c | 31.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…f364backed Yes | 52c | 31.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 31.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 29.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 40c | 29.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…02fcbacked No | 63c | 28.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked Yes | 41c | 27.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 58c | 25.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 64c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.