Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa4b9d8be0742374ab144afde48c4014fab9e8cdc03113efe5b1d92b5afab7d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 932.4$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 32c | 374.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 336$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 40c | 307.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.38 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 39c | 256.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.44 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 35c | 227.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.81 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 200$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 193$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 37c | 178.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 31c | 158.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 143.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 134.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 132.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 41c | 131.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 48c | 126.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 50c | 118.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 64c | 116.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 109.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 27c | 108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 38c | 87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 46c | 80.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 79.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 48c | 78.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 40c | 76.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 48c | 70.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 69.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 44c | 59.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 57.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed No | 55c | 57.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 43c | 56.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…a5b0backed No | 63c | 55.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 54.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 53.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 51.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…3ee4backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…82fabacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 64c | 49.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 39c | 49.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18eb…c5fbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 47.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…999cbacked Yes | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…57a8backed Yes | 44c | 45.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 45.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 67c | 43.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…cc91backed No | 50c | 42.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 36c | 40.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…13b5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 39.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 39c | 38.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 52c | 38.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 36.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 35.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 64c | 35.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 66c | 34.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 48c | 32.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 48c | 32.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 31.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 42c | 31.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 31.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked Yes | 49c | 30.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 61c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 63c | 27.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 60c | 27.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 57c | 26.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 25.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 23.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 22.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 22.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.