Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe53814152bc6f2afe79cc801a8739cfeb74f035adb1edcbc7d75d6f568361b7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 824.65$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 666.7$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 384.88$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 69c | 193.7$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 193.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 32c | 184.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 31c | 163.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 161.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 159.94$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 144.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 135.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 127.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 121.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 118.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 31c | 103.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 103$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 100.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 84.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 25c | 80.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 77.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 74.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed No | 71c | 71.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 43c | 70.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 60.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 66c | 60.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 60.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 60.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 40c | 59.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 36c | 56.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 56.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 55.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 32c | 55.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 30c | 52.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 51.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 39c | 51.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 45.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 44.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 36c | 44.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 44.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 44.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 69c | 44.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 43.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 63c | 43.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 59c | 42.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 41.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 36c | 39.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 39.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed No | 69c | 39.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 72c | 38.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 38.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 37.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 76c | 36.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 39c | 34.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 64c | 32.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 40c | 32.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 38c | 32.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 38c | 29.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 36c | 28.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 27.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 60c | 27.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 26.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 59c | 24.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 24.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 60c | 23.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 60c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 63c | 19.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 19.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.