Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1e7b2a24a048b0716ecf4b79f037367bde5b59afdd2d1af83cef7e20ca8b7cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 755.58$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 749.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.02 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 49c | 734.41$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.27 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 661.7$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 652.59$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.53 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 74c | 570.46$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.49 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 448.1$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 237.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 225.73$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 47c | 210.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 44c | 206.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 188.01$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 183.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 37c | 182.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 178.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 178.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 8c | 163.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 161.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 142.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 52c | 140.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 8c | 134.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed Yes | 49c | 116.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 114$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 55c | 113.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 36c | 111.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 106.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 35c | 94.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 91.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 82.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 48c | 81.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 37c | 80.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 78.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 51c | 75.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 46c | 72.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 50c | 72.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 57c | 72.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 72.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 62c | 72.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 70.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 68.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 66.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 46c | 66.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 66.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 65.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 65.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 49c | 65.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 64.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 64.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 63.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 61.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 62c | 61.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 60.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…7efcbacked No | 50c | 59.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 48c | 59.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…a9afbacked Yes | 51c | 57.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 52c | 54.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 50c | 51.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 64c | 51.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 36c | 51.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d62…72cdbacked Yes | 51c | 50.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 52c | 50.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 49.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…9f83backed No | 50c | 47.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 55c | 46.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 45.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 51c | 44.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 42.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 78c | 40.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 74c | 40.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 37.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 37.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 27c | 37.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 35.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 34c | 35.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 29c | 34.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 74c | 32.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 51c | 31.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.