TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,179 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1838…29b4backed Yes0c12,872$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd651…bff1backed Yes1c9,421$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes1c3,369$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3829520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes1c3,368$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204060%24 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4371…0511backed Yes8c1,249$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes20c1,193$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes26c528.93$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0921236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes11c466.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.465,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes2c460.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.443154.8%17 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+41.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes4c458.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c369.01$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.798,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e6…8fcabacked No76c263.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.812272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+48.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked No60c247.55$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.021353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c240$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.65,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes9c231.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9825449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes19c207.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0628742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes30c200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x109e…9a31backed No67c199.93$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.983844.7%17 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No64c199.46$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0830722.1%68 W · 239 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No64c198.25$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0326067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed Yes36c185$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes24c178.33$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1717831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes11c161$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.934,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes10c152.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9358732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No39c152$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.442,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes32c148.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.553,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes12c141.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1235742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c141.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.831,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bab…3999backed Yes40c137.48$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.961145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No78c114$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5816335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Yes40c106$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.093935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes39c105$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3529740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No71c104.87$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.852,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb29…0171backed Yes39c103.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.225343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb2…0c7abacked No63c101.01$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+142.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes23c99.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed No64c99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.425332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No61c98.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes39c98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1712735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c97.78$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.854,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No74c97.22$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.931,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed Yes36c96.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8638758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c16…04bfbacked Yes36c95.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.171241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e0…ac5cbacked No62c92.08$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes32c89.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.476439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No63c89$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.262,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No76c81.35$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.764,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes32c79.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.66317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes51c78.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes26c78.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.461,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a50…6c35backed No69c72.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.492948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No70c70.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2786173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No58c70.71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.891,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd425…bf47backed No74c67.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.575068%34 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2656…a5b8backed Yes34c67.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.127524%18 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3c…a384backed No69c67.38$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.933928.2%11 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed Yes19c67.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7439157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes18c66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6639159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8480…8b20backed Yes48c62.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes38c61.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfd…dd23backed Yes39c61.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.731050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes37c59.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9962137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x743e…f405backed Yes33c59.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes37c56.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.918837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No65c56.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.861,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…054fbacked Yes34c56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+62.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed Yes34c53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0239158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda63…8969backed Yes40c52.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.849929.3%29 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes41c52.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3711438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c50.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.924,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde1…914bbacked Yes38c50.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.12744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd30…e95ebacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.962,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x394a…ba7fbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2078663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2e96backed Yes38c48.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No66c48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.143,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes37c46.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.258947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf759…644dbacked Yes32c46.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed No55c45.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.286660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68d5…70f5backed Yes34c43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes42c42.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.763920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c42.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes33c42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No63c41.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…3bcabacked No66c41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+69.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x324c…f39bbacked No63c40.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.121145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.425946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf06b…f629backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84932.7%16 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes38c39.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.983,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No68c39.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.781,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No43c38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.561,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No59c36.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7316046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No68c35.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.282,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…9c0ebacked No63c32.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.