TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sashi Esportof fnatic, Sashi Esport
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,445 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a5c…a375backed fnatic64c6,192$3,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,944.515238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Sashi Esport39c5,555$2,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.016,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Sashi Esport36c5,499$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,519.4784958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed fnatic74c5,032$3,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,741.0557358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Sashi Esport35c3,665$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,368.5912449.2%61 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Sashi Esport36c2,580$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.0736742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed fnatic62c2,339$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.224955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Sashi Esport40c1,953$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.4984454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed fnatic61c1,609$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.7617240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed fnatic46c1,294$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.9955950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Sashi Esport37c1,285$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.5318454.3%100 W · 84 L+16.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Sashi Esport54c1,245$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.7714137.6%53 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked fnatic60c1,216$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.935,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6033…8a83backed Sashi Esport39c1,213$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.2915133.1%50 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Sashi Esport33c1,191$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.348437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sashi Esport38c1,156$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.691,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Sashi Esport40c1,151$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.264,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed fnatic60c1,085$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.2329858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Sashi Esport40c958.24$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.0315436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked fnatic61c884.28$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.4144957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Sashi Esport33c825.93$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.824951%25 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed fnatic61c801.89$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.741260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x454f…7642backed fnatic34c801.62$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b8…50d8backed Sashi Esport45c750$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.56050%30 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x866a…1513backed fnatic60c643.9$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.861361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff96…027cbacked Sashi Esport47c639.41$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.791833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed fnatic60c610.2$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.0214953.7%80 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed fnatic68c555.25$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3754358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ac5…154cbacked fnatic76c523.89$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.38875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed fnatic68c511.63$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.5613937.4%52 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed Sashi Esport40c499.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30024429.5%72 W · 172 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd4…39b8backed fnatic49c498.62$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.66637.9%25 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Sashi Esport43c492.89$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9535242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Sashi Esport44c469.46$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.784,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Sashi Esport29c449.08$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.3546843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc38d…850abacked fnatic63c447.88$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.715569.1%38 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed fnatic56c447.56$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.335,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed fnatic26c430.12$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9238131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Sashi Esport44c428.73$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.9224747%116 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc37…8505backed Sashi Esport33c397.25$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.212050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Sashi Esport65c374.71$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.15944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed fnatic63c366.89$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8248350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Sashi Esport50c329.66$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.187744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b36…b82ebacked fnatic61c326.28$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.691533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5639…90fbbacked Sashi Esport38c298.71$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.921560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sashi Esport40c295.22$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.341,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Sashi Esport48c294.63$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.7946344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa743…7300backed fnatic69c291.73$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.388644.2%38 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Sashi Esport48c276.25$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.0454346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb1…eab3backed fnatic60c263.48$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.326259.7%37 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8f…870ebacked fnatic42c259.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5622542.7%96 W · 129 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a7…374abacked fnatic62c254.66$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8927848.6%135 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d7…526dbacked Sashi Esport41c250.48$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9122444.6%100 W · 124 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed fnatic61c246.43$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.321,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2b…8775backed fnatic60c242.28$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2928556.8%162 W · 123 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed fnatic57c233$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8128549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb89a…d883backed Sashi Esport36c224.77$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.855100%5 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+142.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93af…32abbacked Sashi Esport50c218.8$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1310247.1%48 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4a…7045backed Sashi Esport36c218.11$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.556764.2%43 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0609…5aacbacked fnatic64c217.99$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.610347.6%49 W · 54 L-11.7wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-18.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Sashi Esport40c210.46$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9410352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed fnatic59c208.79$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1915544.5%69 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3996…1b4fbacked Sashi Esport37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1263751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed fnatic52c196.8$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.581,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Sashi Esport74c192.45$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.391,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked fnatic60c186.37$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.684037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Sashi Esport39c180.83$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3133352.6%175 W · 158 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sashi Esport50c179.77$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.035,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sashi Esport45c179.49$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.727,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked fnatic75c178.3$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.352657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Sashi Esport27c178.18$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.442,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked fnatic57c172.86$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5338454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked fnatic62c166$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4660953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Sashi Esport34c164.9$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8336554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed fnatic60c164.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5652456.3%295 W · 229 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked fnatic62c160.44$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.428852.3%46 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Sashi Esport35c159.42$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6249849.6%247 W · 251 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Sashi Esport46c157.64$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3848635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39e2…040dbacked fnatic57c156.42$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6310045%45 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked Sashi Esport43c153.75$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9333459%197 W · 137 L+24.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7db…4fa3backed Sashi Esport33c151.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.295446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Sashi Esport47c151.68$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.842,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8289…0bf5backed Sashi Esport40c150.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.281145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Sashi Esport40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9054032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda4c…1cc2backed Sashi Esport33c149.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.174341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf8…1e82backed Sashi Esport66c147.98$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.316854.4%37 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef8d…c438backed fnatic65c146.59$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.831520%3 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked fnatic57c146.45$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.178445.2%38 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed fnatic68c145.94$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6920462.7%128 W · 76 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Sashi Esport41c145.7$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9676546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed fnatic35c140.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3220744.4%92 W · 115 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Sashi Esport44c139.27$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.864854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cee…dfadbacked Sashi Esport71c139.11$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.348844.3%39 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bff…267ebacked Sashi Esport27c137.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.84757.4%27 W · 20 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Sashi Esport23c136.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3367651.8%350 W · 326 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc97…2811backed Sashi Esport44c134.57$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.464450%22 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Sashi Esport45c133.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3935848.3%173 W · 185 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x382d…eb3abacked fnatic63c129.7$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8425250.4%127 W · 125 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf40f…8dcfbacked fnatic51c129.13$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.574858.3%28 W · 20 L+10.2wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+65.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Sashi Esport61c127.26$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.242,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.