TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Shark Attack vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Phoenixof Shark Attack, Team Phoenix
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,754
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,754 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Phoenix63c6,406$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.91,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Team Phoenix53c4,727$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,206.351,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed Shark Attack43c3,056$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.936434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Shark Attack36c2,955$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.7616933.1%56 W · 113 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Shark Attack35c2,774$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.8237647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Phoenix62c2,500$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9503345.5%15 W · 18 L+8.1wins+0.25per pick21cpaid+158.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6b80…e5dfbacked Shark Attack42c2,314$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97910223.5%24 W · 78 L-13.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Team Phoenix56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.981,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Shark Attack38c1,424$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.0712843%55 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf4d…7cd4backed Shark Attack30c1,417$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+182.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Team Phoenix63c1,362$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8045…9116backed Team Phoenix59c1,328$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.57944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Phoenix56c1,288$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.71,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Shark Attack31c1,240$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.52,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Shark Attack11c1,237$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.361,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1047…9036backed Shark Attack44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Shark Attack38c1,106$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.3826042.3%110 W · 150 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Shark Attack43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team Phoenix57c970.78$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.431,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Team Phoenix65c929.96$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0543837.9%166 W · 272 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d1d…c307backed Shark Attack40c903.3$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.763525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed Shark Attack35c741.85$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.87744.2%34 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Shark Attack34c714.06$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.7854529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0975…0899backed Team Phoenix64c699.99$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2522152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae22…3ab3backed Shark Attack38c694.53$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.927027.1%19 W · 51 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Phoenix77c631.25$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.11,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d48…37a3backed Shark Attack43c627.91$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Shark Attack35c601.9$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.7443839.7%174 W · 264 L-24.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3c…5937backed Shark Attack28c579.99$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.888463.1%53 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcefd…d6aabacked Shark Attack42c574.81$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.56731.3%21 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Team Phoenix59c561.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.991,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f9a…000dbacked Shark Attack43c561$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.236051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Team Phoenix63c549.75$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.8958559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Team Phoenix60c486.8$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.7262158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60b1…8e7dbacked Shark Attack39c483.1$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.886349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shark Attack43c471$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.532,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10cf…60cfbacked Shark Attack43c468.21$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008943.8%39 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Shark Attack19c421.41$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.932,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37a4…8260backed Shark Attack38c405.26$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542050%10 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb904…3ef8backed Team Phoenix68c399.98$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.991675%12 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Shark Attack39c374.85$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.690537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…6136backed Team Phoenix59c339.86$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc09b…1478backed Shark Attack13c334.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452536%9 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Shark Attack43c324.62$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.161,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Shark Attack43c300.01$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12912128.9%35 W · 86 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Team Phoenix57c294.33$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.562,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd32…f000backed Shark Attack36c290.47$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5a…f616backed Team Phoenix69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8611464%73 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56bf…0852backed Shark Attack36c266.07$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b7a…8238backed Shark Attack43c265.02$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9614735.4%52 W · 95 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Team Phoenix62c263.94$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.668938.2%34 W · 55 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Shark Attack13c261.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.312,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Phoenix67c254.29$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1263944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34a8…8c5cbacked Shark Attack38c252$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.762119%4 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-60.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x39ea…f75bbacked Team Phoenix68c239.03$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.499751.5%50 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…30fcbacked Shark Attack38c238.95$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.5wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-35%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xbe2b…de68backed Shark Attack15c199.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.163056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Shark Attack13c195.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8214836.5%54 W · 94 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aac…a107backed Shark Attack43c190$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Team Phoenix62c189.04$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5846058%267 W · 193 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Phoenix77c187.72$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.051,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Team Phoenix57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4456949.4%281 W · 288 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b16…358abacked Shark Attack16c175$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb140…ce3dbacked Team Phoenix64c171.88$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked Team Phoenix60c170.24$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.71,05539.6%418 W · 637 L-74.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked Shark Attack34c166.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.773135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xece0…7dc9backed Team Phoenix62c163.95$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.14744.7%21 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shark Attack37c161.83$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.881,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x336a…1915backed Shark Attack34c152.91$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.992755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Team Phoenix58c150.95$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.43764.9%24 W · 13 L+5.9wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+34.3%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x2888…f1a4backed Shark Attack43c148.12$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7153932.5%175 W · 364 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Team Phoenix59c135$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3512937.2%48 W · 81 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd602…d9eebacked Team Phoenix75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc95e…102abacked Shark Attack41c126.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.874351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed Shark Attack41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Shark Attack41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508549.4%42 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked Shark Attack41c121.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506048.3%29 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Team Phoenix64c119.29$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.91,46443.4%636 W · 828 L-32.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Shark Attack17c119.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4655628.6%159 W · 397 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Shark Attack12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1277741.7%324 W · 453 L-27.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Team Phoenix66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3425540.8%104 W · 151 L-26.0wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-29%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked Shark Attack24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7514546.9%68 W · 77 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Team Phoenix63c99.83$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8434448.3%166 W · 178 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07df…9f0cbacked Shark Attack34c98.24$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.48143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Shark Attack11c91.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.271,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7dbd…c5acbacked Team Phoenix58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.215048%24 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Shark Attack38c81.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.291,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Shark Attack37c79.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.325737%95 W · 162 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Phoenix79c63.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.682,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Shark Attack27c62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.842,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Shark Attack36c61.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.24630.4%14 W · 32 L-5.5wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c5c…1cf7backed Shark Attack44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Phoenix64c55.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.822,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked Shark Attack43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.518440.8%75 W · 109 L-14.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7aa0…95c2backed Team Phoenix66c49.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Shark Attack45c41.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3958043.3%251 W · 329 L-47.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14dc…de4cbacked Shark Attack38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2151…5d9fbacked Team Phoenix65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a2…123dbacked Shark Attack43c39.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Team Phoenix64c35.78$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.018641.9%36 W · 50 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.